|Abstract: ||摘要:航運相關產業中，近年以散裝航運市場之變化最具挑戰性，其策略管理有別 於定期航運領域。近年由於新造船與二手船價格波動劇烈，導致購船決策難度大 幅提高。除少數幾家公司外，我國散裝航運公司船舶載重噸(DWT)大多規模不 大，每次購船決策勢必影響深遠。基於散裝航運公司立場，本計畫擬進行購置新 造船(Newbuilding)與二手船(Secondhand vessel)投資決策之評估與關鍵影響因素 之分析。由於購置新造船與二手船影響因素不同，又未有一套較完整評估準則， 使散裝航運公司暴露於極大風險中。因此，本計畫【第一年】擬利用聯合國 UNCTAD、德國ISL 與Clarkson 等過去十年(1997 年1 月至2008 年12 月)之相關 變數，採用單根檢定法、共整合檢定法、誤差修正模式(ECM)，探討二手船價(SP) 除以新造船價格(NP)之比值(SP/NP)，分析散裝海岬型(Cape size)、巴拿馬極限型 (Panamax size)、超輕便極限型船(Supramax size)、輕便型船(Handy size)等四種不 同船型的變化，作為購置新造船抑或二手船之投資決策依據。【第二年】擬深入 探討購置新造船與二手船之影響因素，並採用決策實驗室分析法(DEMATEL)與 模糊認知圖(FCM)，分別探討購置新造船與二手船影響因素之關聯性，作為購置 新造船與二手船之依據。檢視船舶買賣(S&P)過去相關文獻，並未提供較完整之 分析架構，亦未有系統地量化評估購船決策關鍵影響因素，因此【第三年】擬進 一步採用模糊層級分析法(Fuzzy AHP)探討購置新造船與二手船之關鍵影響因 素，俾能深入了解不同屬性決策者對購船決策關鍵影響因素重要性之認知差異。 本計畫研究結果可提供散裝航運公司進行購船決策客觀評估工具，了解購置新造 船與二手船影響因素間之關聯性，和關鍵影響因素之重要性及其影響程度。|
abstract:In recent years, among shipping related industries, the variation of bulk shipping market has been the most challenging, and the strategy management in bulk shipping differs from that of liner shipping. Additionally, the fierce fluctuation in prices of newbuilding and second-hand vessels has accelerated the difficulty in making purchasing decisions. In Taiwan, most bulk shipping corporations own small-scale ship deadweight tonnages only; therefore, each ship purchasing decision would have deep and far influence on the corporations. Implementing this research on the basis of bulk shipping corporations, we plan to evaluate purchasing decisions of newbuilding and secondhand vessels, and analyze their key influence factors. Because of the discrepancy in the influence factors and the lack of an integral evaluation criterion for making purchasing decisions, bulk shipping corporations are exposed to considerable risks. For this reason, throughout the first year of this research, in order to discuss the ratio of secondhand price (SP) divided by newbuilding price (NP) and the variations in Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize as a reference for vessel purchasing decision-making, we not only adopt the related variables of the last decade (January 1997 to December 2008) from UNCTAD, ISL and Clarkson but also apply the methods of Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model (ECM). During the second year, we plan to analyze more profoundly the influence factors involving the purchases of newbuilding and secondhand vessels, and then, examine the relations of the influence factors respectively by adopting the methods of DEMATEL and FCM. By examining previous literatures related to ship sale and purchase, we found out that a more complete analyzing framework has not been constructed and that the influence factors have never been evaluated systematically. Therefore, in the third year, we will adopt the method of Fuzzy AHP to discuss further the key influence factors, which impact the purchases of newbuilding and secondhand vessels, so as to comprehend distinct perceptions about the importance of the key influence factors among decision-makers with different attributes. The findings in this research can serve as a good reference in making ship purchasing decisions for bulk shipping corporations, and will benefit bulk shipping corporations by helping them understand the relations among different influence factors concerning purchasing newbuilding and secondhand vessels as well as, the significance and the degree of influence of the key influence factors.