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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/54139

Title: 臺灣發展黑潮發電產業之經濟影響評估
Economic Evaluation of Developing Ocean current power generation industry in Taiwan
Authors: Weng, Tzu-Min
翁慈敏
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: 洋流發電;黑潮發電;生命週期評估;投入產出模型;工程經濟模型;社會整合效益
Ocean current power generation;Kuroshio power generation;Life-cycle Assessment (LCA);Input-Output (IO) Model;Engineering Economic Model;Social Integration Benefit
Date: 2019
Issue Date: 2020-07-09T06:05:10Z
Abstract: 全球暖化,二氧化碳持續上升,各國急需尋找乾淨的能源減少二氧化碳排放量,而再生能源中以海洋能源具有龐大的潛能,尤其台灣全年暖流流經,具穩定能量特性,因此本文選定洋流能-黑潮做為研究對象,針對我國發展黑潮發電產業對整體經濟影響進行整體性評估。 本文設定我國的海洋能源政策目標三階段,分別為目標40MW、目標250MW與目標1000MW進行臺灣黑潮發電量的模擬與比較,以生命週期評估為概念(Life cycle assessment;LCA),進行黑潮發電整體社會效益之評估,包括個體面之黑潮發電廠之工程經濟學進行財務績效評估,產業面以投入產出模型,模擬臺灣發展黑潮發電對臺灣整體經濟之產值與GDP影響,此模擬情境分為:(一)供給面的模擬、(二)需求面的模擬,以及(三)零組件國產化之模擬,最後進行計算帶動之產業誘發效益(包括薪資增幅效益與營所稅增收效益),以及我國發展黑潮發電在CO2排放之外部淨效益等四項效益之社會整合效益評估,提供決策者參考。 依黑潮發電場之生命週期為23年,以再生能源2019年其他類之海洋能躉購電價2.1107元計算黑潮發電廠未來之營收,搭配本文計算之各類黑潮發電之成本,模擬結果發現其財務效益不具財務可行性,於生命週期內無法回收成本。敏感度分析方面,若以目前離岸風力發電之躉購電價5.5160元計算,財務績效顯示則具有財務可行性之投資,並可於10年又6個月後開始回收成本。另外,黑潮發電產業的損益兩平躉購電價金額需高於3.6859元,黑潮發電開發商才具利潤效益。 模擬結果顯示,模擬一供給面於乘數效果、CO2減量價格數值較優異,而模擬二需求面的整體產值、GDP、就業人數效益與營業所得效益較供給面高,至於模擬三零組件國產化的效益不太明顯,主要是因為其產業鏈之比例比較小,待未來零組件國產化產值比例大於5%以後,其乘數效果具較大的成長的空間。 在黑潮發電場生命週期23年間,可創造2.64萬至66.02萬就業人數、提升就業薪資效益150億元至3,000億元、營業所得稅增加20億元至500億元,並可節省200萬公噸至6.8億公噸的二氧化碳排放量,產生淨碳排放價值約8億元至2,185億元,相當於造林12,146公頃至3036,477公頃之效益。 在社會整合效益評估中,以生命週期計算,基礎情境2.1107元產值總效益3,621百萬元至3,524,801百萬元、GDP總效益27,827百萬元至3,379,231百萬元;躉購電價 5.5160元產值總效益44,548百萬元 至3,684,335百萬元、GDP總效益38,754百萬元至3,538,765百萬元。 本研究模擬結果具政策參考性,亦帶給我國產業新興經濟效益,建議我國能源政策決策者將黑潮發電列入我國能源發展配比重要項目,提高我國供電穩定性與經濟持續成長。
In recent years, global weather warming, carbon dioxide continues rising, every countries urgently to find some clean energy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, a renewable ocean energy near Taiwan has a huge potential, it has a warm flow throughout the year, with stable energy characteristics, so we selected the Kuroshio to generate power assessment as this article for the research object, the overall assessment of the overall economic impact of the development of the Kuroshio power generation industry in Taiwan. This paper follow Taiwan's marine energy policy three stages objectives to simulation and comparison of Taiwan's Kuroshio power generation for the base target of 40 MW, the expected target of 250 MW, and the potential target of 1000 MW. Adopt Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method to evaluate the overall social benefits of Kuroshio Power Generation, which include the financial performance evaluation of the engineering economics of the individual Kuroshio Power Plant, and use the input-output model of the industry to simulate the development of Taiwan's overall black tide power generation and GDP Impact, this simulation scenario is divided into: (1) simulation of the supply direction, (2) simulation of the demand direction, and (3) simulation of the localization of components, and finally the calculation-driven industry-induced benefits (including salary increase benefits and camps) The social integration benefit assessment of the four benefits of Taiwan's development of black tide power generation in the external net benefit ofCO2 emissions provides reference for decision makers. According to the life cycle of the Kuroshio Power Plant for 23 years, we simulate the future revenue of the Kuroshio Power Plant electricity source price is 2.1107 NTD in 2019, this simulation found that its financial benefits were not financially viable and it was not possible to recover costs during the life cycle. In terms of sensitivity analysis, if the current purchase price of offshore wind power is 5.5160 NTD, the financial performance shows a financially viable investment, and the cost can be recovered after ten years six months. In addition, the amount of electricity purchased by the Kuroshio Power Generation Industry must be higher than 3.6859 NTD, and the developers of the Kuroshio Power Generation are profitable. The simulation results show that in addition to providing the supply side multiplier effect and the CO2 reduction price value is excellent, the simulated total output value, total GDP and employment efficiency on the demand side are also relatively high, and the benefits of localization of components are not obvious, The reason is because the proportion of its industrial chain is relatively small. So when somedays the proportion of domestically produced components is greater than 5%, the multiplier effect has a higher room for growth. In the 23 years of the life cycle of the Kuroshio Power Plant, it can create 26,400 to 660,200 jobs, increase employment wages of 15 billion to 300 billion NTD, increase business income tax by 2 billion NTD to 50 billion NTD, and save 2 million metric tons. The 680 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions generate net carbon emissions worth about 800 million NTD to 218.5 billion NTD, equivalent to 12,146 hectares to 3036,477 hectares of a forestation. In the social integration benefit assessment, based on the life cycle calculation, the total output value of the purchase price of 2.1107 NTD is 3,621 million NTD to 3,524,801 million NTD, the total GDP benefit is 27,827 million NTD to 3,379,231 million NTD; the total purchase price of electricity is 5.5160 NTD. The benefit is 44,548 million NTD to 3,684,335 million NTD, and the total GDP benefit is 38,754 million NTD to 3,538,765 million NTD. The simulation results of this study give reference to policy and bring considerable economic benefits to Taiwan's industry. It is recommended that Taiwan's energy policy decision-makers include the Kuroshio Power Generation as an important project in Taiwan's energy development ratio, and improve Taiwan's power supply stability and sustained economic growth.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010435006.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/54139
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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