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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/54137

Title: 國家異質度與ICT產業出口-以PQML模型驗證
Authors: CHIH, RUEI-CI
池瑞琦
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: 資訊與通信技術;引力模型;卜瓦松最大概似估計法;專利技術;外國直接投資;國家發展程度
information and communication technology;gravity model;poisson quasi maximum likelihood;patent technology;foreign direct investment;the level of national development
Date: 2019
Issue Date: 2020-07-09T06:05:09Z
Abstract: 資訊通訊科技(ICT)產業貿易隨著技術科技的快速發展,成為了全球貿易市場最重要的產業,其中高所得國家在ICT貿易出口上就佔有七成的比例。最值得注意的是ICT產業在全球市場之市佔率及貿易流量上呈現逐年成長的趨勢。隨著國家異質度的提升,如GDP、GNIPC、專利技術、FDI及國家發展程度,都直接影響到ICT產業的發展,故本文將在ICT產業之全球雙邊貿易出口上,針對ICT產業的技術研發及外來直接投資進行分析。再探討出口國進行所得劃分後,瞭解在高所得、中高所得、中低所得之國家對於ICT產業的影響因素分析。最後進而觀察美國、日本、韓國、中國以及台灣在ICT產業貿易上,其互相影響關係因素以及時間效果趨勢。本研究以2010年至2014年全球ICT產業貿易追蹤資料,以PQML引力模型進行驗證。主要發現如下:(1)ICT技術能力的提升和運用可從市場反映出各國ICT產業貿易競爭力的優劣勢及獨佔效果。(2)ICT產業在高產品相似性飽和市場中具有高度的競爭力,易造成市場開發空間的縮減。(3)ICT產業在出口貿易,有七成主要為高所得國家,且以中國作為主要代工國進行出口。從ICT技術能力與投資的觀點可得知,中高所得國家在ICT產業研發技術及投資上有著卓越的成長發展空間。反之,中低所得國家因擁有ICT產業市場的規模較為狹小,造成投資國對其投資意願較低,使其在ICT產業技術發展上顯得較為緩慢。(4)根據特定國家整體來看,台灣與中國因三角貿易型態,使台灣能以國際分工的方式來減少貿易成本,進而提升ICT產業的出口貿易量。韓國方面,雖其自身對ICT產業擁有十足的技術研發和生產力,擁有可自行生產的代工工廠,惟在比較利益原則下仍須和中國進行分工。。而以需求面導向的美國與日本在ICT產業上投入大量研發,為能減少貿易成本,透過中國作為最主要代工生產地。綜上觀點,反映出中國在代工出口上有顯著的影響力。
The Information and communication technology (ICT) industry trade has become the most important industry in the global trade market with the rapid development of technology. ICT trade accounts for 70% of all exports in high income nations. It’s worth noting that growth trends in market share and trade volume of the ICT industry continues to grow globally. By considering the country heterogeneity such as GDP, GNIPC, patented technology, FDI, and the level of national development which will affect the development of ICT industry. In addition, according to the classification of the World Bank, we divide exporting countries into high-, middle-upper-, middle-lower income and lower-income countries. Finally, the paper focuses on the role of specific country, such as U.S., Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan in ICT industry trade. Using 2010 to 2014 panel dataset of worldwide trade, we employ the PQML gravity model to investigates the evolution of ICT industry exports. Our major findings are as follow: (1) The improvements and utilization of ICT technology is reflected in the competitiveness advantages, and exclusivity effects of each nation’s ICT industry to improve their position in competitive markets. (2) The ICT industry is a highly competitive in high product similarity saturated market that can easily cause developed markets space to retract. (3) The ICT industry export trade of 70% is mainly by high-income countries, with China acting as the primary original equipment manufacturer place for export. It is evident through the perspective of ICT technology and investment that middle-upper income countries have exceptional room for growth and development in terms of ICT industry research and design technology and investment in ICT industries. On the contrary, middle-lower income countries have ICT industry markets at smaller scales resulting in slower technology development due to unwillingness for nations to invest. (4) According to the specific countries as a whole, as for Taiwan and China, the triangular trade model reduce trade costs by means of international trade, which will increase export trade volume of the ICT industry. In South Korea, although it is possesses sufficient research and development along with production capabilities to harness their own original equipment manufacturer factories for production, but still has to work with China under the principle of comparative advantage. The demand-oriented U.S. and Japan have invested heavily in research and development in the ICT industry, in order to reduce trade costs, it is clear that both nations utilize China as their primary base of manufacturing. In summary, it’s shown that China has significant influence on original equipment manufacturer and exports.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010635009.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/54137
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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