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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/52841

Title: 氣候變遷下臺灣東北部漁民風險認知及管理
Fishermen’s perception and management in north eastern Taiwan under climate change
Authors: Yip, Kat-Kau
葉吉球
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Marine Affairs and Resource Managemen
國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋事務與資源管理研究所
Keywords: 氣候變遷;風險管理;生產不確定性;漁業管理
Climate change;Risk management;Production uncertainty;Fishery management
Date: 2018
Issue Date: 2020-01-20T06:08:00Z
Abstract: 氣候變遷是近年來受國際社會關注的全球性環境議題,已有許多研究指出氣候變遷將對於海洋生態系及其生態系統服務有所影響,尤其對於海洋捕撈漁業的影響更是顯著。氣候變遷所造成的環境資源變化為漁業經營上重要風險來源,更進一步造成漁業生產上的不確定性。因此,從生產不確定性觀點探討氣候變遷影響下沿海漁業風險管理之作法,乃增進漁業永續經營的重要研究課題。本研透過究分析漁民對氣候變遷的風險來源、生產不確定性及調適措施的認知與關連性,本研究分析漁民對氣候變遷的風險來源、生產不確定性及調適措施的認知與關連性,以作為沿近海漁業風險措施決策之依據。基此,本研究以基隆市、新北市及宜蘭 縣沿近海漁民為研究對象,透過問卷調查,訪問273位有海上作業經驗之漁民。透過採用敘述統計、因素分析及線性結構方程式(Structural Equation Modeling)等統計方法進行實證研究,線性結構方程式架構中分為前置變數「風險來源」、中介變數「生產不確定性」及結果變數「風險管理措施」。結果顯示,41.8%受訪 者強烈認為氣候變遷會對漁業產生影響,但只有34.8%受訪者強烈表示會採取調適措施。SEM 分析中,風險來源與管理措施之關係超過九成呈負向顯著(t-value < -1.96)的關連性,顯示受訪者認為各種風險來源與管理措施的選取是負向關係。然而,生產不確性在漁業風險管理中扮演著中介效果,使整條風險鏈產生正向效果。從結果可得知,漁民在氣候變遷的風險管理之決策中,進行決策的依據是以生產不確定性為重要參考因素,並就氣候變遷的影響而採取管理措施之中介影響效果。
Climate change is a global environmental issue causing concern for society internationally, and many studies indicate that the impacts of climate change on marine capture fisheries. Marine Environmental changes caused by climate change are critical operational risks, leading to production uncertainty for capture fisheries. Therefore, risk management measures of coastal and offshore fisheries under climate change are critical issues, which help capture fisheries to enhance operational sustainability. Because of the importance of fishing production in Keelung City, New Taipei City, and Yilan County, we selected these cities/counties as case studies to analyze fishermen’s attitudes related to risks and production uncertainty under climate change. In this study, we conducted a questionnaire survey to interview 273 fishermen who have experiences of capture fishing. To meet our objectives, descriptive statistics, factor analysis, and a structural equation model (SEM) were adopted to analyze fishermen’s perceptions and the relationships among risks sources, production uncertainty, and adaptation measures. According to the empirical result, most respondents agree with risk sources under climate change were affect fishery resource. But the SEM reveal that significant negative (t-value < -1.96) impacts were existed between risks sources and adaptation measures, which means risk sources cannot directly influence management measures selection. However, the production uncertainty could be an important mediator for the risk management, thus most respondents thought to control the production uncertainty is needed. Hopefully, the results could provide some suggestions for the fishery operators, policymakers and the government.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010437007.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/52841
Appears in Collections:[海洋事務與資源管理研究所] 博碩士論文

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