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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/52058

Title: 臺灣經濟成長與溫室氣體減量雙贏策略之研究-以DEA與CGE聯合評估法之軟連結與應用
The Study of Economic Growth and Emission Mitigation of Taiwan –
Authors: LI,EN-TING
李恩霆
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: 非意欲產出;資料包絡分析法;可計算一般均衡模型;全球貿易分析模型;軟連結
Undesirable Outputs;Data Envelopment Analysis;Computable general equilibrium;Global Trade Analysis Project;Soft-link
Date: 2018
Issue Date: 2019-01-29T02:24:31Z
Abstract: 過去臺灣追求國家經濟成長,消耗石化能源導致溫室氣體排放,是追求經濟成長中不可避免之產物,當石化能源消耗越多,所排放之溫室氣體量亦是變多,因此,衡量臺灣生產效率不僅考量國內生產毛額為主要產出,亦需考量到溫室氣體排放等非意欲產出(undesirable outputs)。臺灣是具有多元產出的特性,因此,藉由衡量臺灣國內生產毛額、二氧化碳排放量、甲烷排放量等三產出項與平均每人能源消費量、資本存量等兩投入項,運用資料包絡分析法(DEA)探討2010至2015年臺灣總生產力變動率。 將日本、荷蘭等標竿國家與臺灣一同衡量生產力變動率,並將日本與荷蘭之生產力變動率視為臺灣改善的標竿值,為要觀察當臺灣生產力變動率達至標竿國家時,能使臺灣經濟成長與產業之變化情形,因此以軟連結方式結合可計算一般均衡模型(CGE),DEA模型的總生產力與CGE模型之生產技術進步可以此作為軟連結之根據。 研究結果顯示,情境模擬一以建構DEA模型與CGE模型之軟連結,提升臺灣生產力7.25%時,增加臺灣國內生產毛額19.2971%。另外,情境模擬二應用於政府投資政策「前瞻基礎建設計畫」,將增加臺灣國內生產毛額4.9212%,相較之下,提升生產力對於臺灣經濟成長貢獻較為大,同時對於減少溫室氣體排放,政府之「前瞻基礎建設計畫」的綠能建設貢獻較為明顯。
In the past, Taiwan pursued national economic growth, and the consumption of petrify energy source led to emissions of greenhouse gas. It was an unavoidable product in pursuit of economic growth. When the petrify energy source was consumed more, the emission of greenhouse gas increased. Measurement of Taiwan's Production Efficiency not only considers Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the main outputs, but also takes undesirable outputs into account such as greenhouse gas emissions. Taiwan is characterized by the output of pluralism. Therefore, by measuring Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), carbon dioxide emission, and methane emission, the three output items and the average energy source consumption, capital stock and other two inputs,and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to explore Taiwan's Total Productivity Rate of change. To measure the productivity rate of change with advanced countries such as Japan and Netherlands, and to consider the Productivity Rate of change in Japan and the Netherlands as the benchmarking of Taiwan. In order to observe that when Taiwan's Productivity Rate of change reaches benchmarking, it can make Taiwan's economic growth and changes in the industry. Therefore, combining the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with Soft-link methods, the total production of the DEA model and the production techniques of the CGE model. According to statistical equation, situation simulation builds on Soft- link between the DEA model and the CGE model to increase Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 19.2971%. In addition, scenario simulation 2 is applied to the government investment policy "The Industrial Technology Foresight Research Program", which will increase Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) by 4.9212%. In comparison, improving productivity will make a greater contribution to Taiwan's economic growth, but reduce greenhouse gas emissions; “The Industrial Technology Foresight Research Program” of the government contributes significantly to Green Energy Construction.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010535004.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/52058
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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