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Title: 檢測環境顧志耐曲線假說-七大工業國及東南亞國協之國家
Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in G7 and ASEAN Countries
Authors: Chen, Ian-Ju
陳彥竹
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: 環境顧志耐曲線;二氧化碳;實質人均GDP;七大工業國;東南亞國協;國際貿易;能源因子;ARDL邊界檢定;追蹤資料
Environmental Kuznets curve;CO2;GDP per capita(Real);G7;ASEAN;Trade;Energy;ARDL boundary Test;Panel Data
Date: 2017
Issue Date: 2019-01-29T02:24:26Z
Abstract: 本研究針對七大工業國及東南亞國協進行環境顧志耐曲線假說之驗證及計算。在過去的文獻指出當經濟發展至相對程度高點時,環境破壞程度便會隨之下降。本研究為驗證文獻所述,採計不同經濟發展程度之經濟組織進行後續研究。本研究經由世界銀行及美國能源資料庫蒐集15個觀察國自1975年至2015年間共15項變數40年之研究資料,找尋在不同經濟體發展之情況下驗證環境顧志耐曲線之存在與否。本研究將觀察變數區分成兩類模組進行研究。模組一為貿易變數設定之模組,模組二為能源變數設定之模組,探討在兩種模組設定下環境顧志耐曲線之存在與否及變數之間影響效果。 本研究將模組變數經由單一國家之ARDL邊界檢定分析及追蹤資料之VECM Test找尋短期變數之間的相互影響效果及長期環境顧志耐曲線之存在與否。根據估計結果可以得知,經濟體之發展之大小與開發程度並非影響環境顧志耐曲線之主因。在東南亞國協及七大工業國的檢定結果中均存在環境顧志耐曲線,顯示當所得增加至一定程度時,環境破壞便會隨之下降。除此之外,本研究透過估計結果找出單一國家在環境顧志耐曲線存在,並將其發生結構變化點之年分找出。其次將追蹤資料變數相互之因果關係。目的用於找出變數之間相互影響之因果關係,用於確認變數間相互影響性存在與否。 在單一國家的估計結果中無論是七大工業國或東南亞國協之國家在長期狀態下環境顧志耐曲線均有存在之跡象。例:美國、英國、歐盟、義大利、德國、法國、俄羅斯、印尼、馬來西亞及泰國等國。均顯示出經濟發展對於二氧化碳之排放量存在抑制的效果。除此之外,在模組一貿易變數的實證估計結果中顯示商品出口會對於二氧化碳的排放量產生抑制的效果。在模組二能源變數的實證估計結果中顯示石油價格的提升確實對於二氧化碳排放量存在抑制之效果。而石油消耗量在估計的結果中對於二氧化碳的排放量存在正向之影響,顯示增加石油的消耗量會對於二氧化碳的排放量有顯著增加之影響。 實證結果除了透過單一國家之估計之外,本研究另將七大工業及東南亞國協參與國之資料彙整成追蹤資料。進行已開發國家及開發中國家之對比;由而在單一國家之實證結果中,模組一貿易變數的實證估計結果中存在環境顧志耐曲線之國家超過全部統計之50%,因此本研究選擇模組一貿易變數進行後續分析探討。在不考慮國家發展差異下,各項變數之間長期關係及因果關係。 根據實證結果,可以得知東南亞國協及所有國家之統計結果均發現長期而言環境顧志曲線的存在。當所得提升至一定程度時便會對二氧化碳排放量存在減量之效果。然而卻發現原先預期先進國家七大工業國之代表在長期而言並不存在此曲線之估計結果。 在因果檢定之結果發現短期而言,七大工業國的實質人均GDP及實質人均GDP之平方項互為因果關係。商品進出口總值在短期存在相互的因果關係。實質人均GDP及其平方項對於石油能源使用量及再生能源消耗量存在單向因果關係。商品進出口總值、石油能源使用量及實質人均GDP之平方項對人均二氧化碳存在單向因果關係。商品進出口總值對於實質人均GDP及其平方項和石油能源使用量存在單向因果關係。再生能源消耗量對於商品進出口總值存在單向因果關係。 在東南亞國協的因果檢定結果中,實質人均GDP及其平方項在短期互為因果關係。實質人均GDP對人均二氧化碳排放量互為因果關係。商品進出口總值對於實質人均GDP及平方項,石油能源使用量互為因果關係。兩者之間亦互為因果關係。人均二氧化碳排放量對於石油能源使用量及商品進出口總值在短期存在單向因果關係。再生能源消耗量對於人均二氧化碳排放量及石油能源使用量存在單向因果關係。石油能源使用量對於實質人均GDP存在單向因果關係。 在所有變數估計之因果檢定結果中,實質人均GDP除了對人均二氧化碳排放量不存在因果關係之外,對於其他變數均存在雙向因果關係。實質人均GDP之平方項除了對人均二氧化碳排放量及商品出口總值不存在因果關係之外,對於其他變數均存在雙向因果關係。商品進出口總值在短期互為因果關係。人均二氧化碳排放量除了與再生能源消耗量及商品出口總值不存在因果關係之外,與其餘變數存在單向因果關係。 根據所有實證結果本研究得出以下結論,對於抑制全球暖化的道路上,不應區分國家或經濟發展程度之差異而對減碳之努力有所差別。無論是已開發國家或開發中國家均對於環境保育刻不容緩,且根據結果明顯指出,在單一國家的估計結果中。七大工業國確實比起東協來的顯著存在此曲線。然而卻在追蹤資料的研究上,七大工業國並不存在此假說之結果。顯見對於二氧化炭的抑制,並非全然歸因於經濟體之差異所造成之結果。面對未來如何有效提升能源使用效率及商品出口程度使其達到減碳之效果,是人們值得深思熟慮之課題。
This study was testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis of the G7 and ASEAN countries. According to the literature, when economic growth up to the relative high point, the environmental disruption will decline to the relatively low point. This research was to verify the literature result, testing the different level of the economic development organizations. In order to find out the consequence through the study. Based on the World Bank and the Statistical Review of World energy, this study collected 15 countries and 15 variables from 1975 to 2015 and 15 observers to find out the presence or absence of the environment in different economies. This research separate the data into two groups. Due to the variable definition, our study setting group one as trade group, and group two as energy group. In order to test the EKC hypothesis and find out the variables effect through the different economic development. This study used ARDL bound test to verify the unit countries EKC hypothesis through the different groups, and also used VECM to verify the panel data short term variable casusl effect and long term EKC hypothesis. Due to the result, different economic development didn’t the main reason to effect the EKC hypothesis. Base on single countries result of the G7 and ASEAN, the EKC hypothesis was existed. When the economic growth to a certain extent, the environmental disruption will decline to the relative low point. Otherwise, the results of this study were used to find out the structural change years and the relationship between the variables in the individual countries. Also to find out the casual relationship between the panel data variables in order to confirm the existence of the interaction between variables. In the estimates of a single country, both G7 and ASEAN had signs of existence in the long-term EKC. Such as:USA, UK, EU, Italy, France, Germany, Russian, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. All of them had enough evidence to prove when the economic growth could inhibit the CO2 emission. According to the group one result, merchandise exports could inhibit the CO2 emission. The group two result also verify oil price could inhibit the CO2 emission. Nevertheless, oil consumption had the positive effect on CO2 emission. Due to the study of the result we separated the data not only in the single countries also as the panel data of the G7 and ASEAN data according to their economic development. In the result of the group one study, trade variables had more than 50% of the countries their EKC hypothesis was existence. In the end, the research chose the group one variables into the later on panel study. According to the empirical result, we could find out that ASEAN and the panel data of all countries their EKC was existence in the long term. And also discover that when GDP growth up to the relative high point, the environmental disruption will decline to the relatively low point. However the empirical result of G7 countries was not have the same consequence as the study anticipation at first. In the short term of the Granger casual relationship test. G7countries empirical result declared that the real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship. Merchandise imports and exports had the two-way casual relationship. The real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the one way casual relationship to the energy-use of the oil and renewable energy consumption. Merchandise imports /exports, energy use of oil and square and the real GDP had the one-way casual relationship to the CO2 emission. Merchandise imports /exports had the one-way casual relationship to the real GDP, the square of the real GDP and energy use of oil. Renewable energy consumption had the one-way casual relationship to the merchandise imports /exports. The empirical result of ASEAN countries that the real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship. The real GDP and the CO2 emission had the two-way casual relationship. Merchandise imports /exports, the real GDP, the square of the real GDP and energy use of oil had the two-way casual relationship. The CO2 emission had the one-way casual relationship to the energy use of oil and merchandise imports /exports. Renewable energy consumption had the one-way casual relationship to the CO2 emission and energy use of oil. The energy use of oil had the one-way casual relationship to the real GDP. The empirical result of the panel data of the all countries. The real GDP had the two-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the CO2 emission. The square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the CO2 emission and merchandise exports. Merchandise imports and exports had the two-way casual relationship. The CO2 emission had the one-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the renewable energy consumption and merchandise exports. According to all of the empirical results, in the single countries consequence, the G7 countries had more evidence to prove the EKC is existence. However in the panel data research the G7 countries didn’t exist this hypothesis. Obviously, to decline the CO2 emission. Not only focus on the economic development different also improve the renewable energy consumption and merchandise exports is the most important things of all.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010435002.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/52052
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