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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/51903

Title: Impact of climate change on water resources in Taiwan
Authors: Tsai, An-Yuan
Wen-Cheng Huang
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: Climate change
GCM
Renewable water resources
Fuzzy comprehensive assessment
Date: 2011-10
Issue Date: 2019-01-03T08:37:13Z
Publisher: Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Abstract: Abstract: This paper establishes a comprehensive assessment model to measure the regional impact of climate change on Taiwan’s
water resources. Working from future rainfall data simulated by Japan’s high-resolution GCM model JMA/MRI TL959L60
in a SRES-A1B scenario, we first apply climate change to an assessment model of renewable water resources to estimate the
volume of renewable water resources on a regional basis. We then conduct a water resources system simulation based on
estimates of future water needs, regional reservoir effective capacity and renewable water resource volume. This paper uses
three water resource assessment indicators: the annual water utilization ratio indicator, the water shortage indicator and the
extreme event occurrence indicator. Through fuzzy comprehensive assessment, we divide the evaluation set into five levels:
very good (L1), good (L2), fair (L3), poor (L4) and very poor (L5). Results indicate that, given the effects of future climate
change (2080 - 2099) and the increase in water demand, future water resources conditions in northern and eastern Taiwan will
not be significantly different from historical levels (1979 - 1998) and will maintain a “good” level (L2), while the conditions
in southern Taiwan will visibly deteriorate from its historical “fair” level (L3) to “poor” (L4); and the future conditions for
central Taiwan will be “poor” (L4). The initiation of adaptation options for water management in southern and central Taiwan
would be needed by increasing reservoir capacity and reducing overall water use.
Relation: 22(5) pp.507-519
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/51903
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 期刊論文

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