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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50179

Title: Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan
Authors: Wen-Ming Cheng
Chien-Lin Huang
Nien-Sheng Hsu
Chih-Chiang Wei
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊系
Keywords: risk analysis
optimization model
water supply
reservoir flood operation
hedging rules
Date: 2017-06
Issue Date: 2018-09-18T08:23:39Z
Publisher: Water
Abstract: Abstract: This study applies an integrated methodology to assess short-term over-levee risk and long-term water shortage risk in the Da-Han Creek basin, which is the most important flood control and water storage system in northern Taiwan. An optimization model for reservoir flood control and water supply is adopted, to determine reservoir releases based on synthetic inflow hydrographs during typhoons, which are generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The release is then used to calculate the water level at a downstream control point using a novel developed back-propagation neural network-based model, to reduce computational complexity and achieve automatic-efficient risk evaluation. The calculated downstream water levels and final reservoir water levels after a typhoon event are used to evaluate the mapped over-levee risk and water shortage risk, respectively. The results showed that the different upper limit settings for the reservoir have a significant influence on the variation of 1.19 × 10−5% to 75.6% of the water shortage risk. This occurs because of the insufficient inflow and narrow storage capacity of the Shih-Men Reservoir during drought periods. However, the upper limit settings have a minor influence (with a variation of only 0.149% to 0.157%) on the over-levee risk in typhoon periods, because of the high protection standards for the downstream embankment.
Relation: 9(6)
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50179
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 期刊論文

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