English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 26988/38789
Visitors : 2314447      Online Users : 34
RC Version 4.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Adv. Search
LoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50178

Title: Conceptual weather environmental forecasting system for identifying potential failure of under-construction structures during typhoons
Authors: Chih-Chiang Wei
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊系
Keywords: Introduction
Methodology
Study site and climate
Analysis and model evaluation
Experiment and simulation
Conclusions
Date: 2017-09
Issue Date: 2018-09-18T08:14:08Z
Publisher: Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics
Abstract: Abstract: In this study, we developed a conceptual weather environmental forecasting system (CWEFS) for predicting the failure of under-construction structures during typhoons. Major functions of the developed system include 1) forecasting hourly typhoon wind velocity, 2) analyzing structure reference load during the construction stage, 3) identifying potential failure of under-construction structures, and 4) evaluating the weather in future hours to determine whether the conditions are suitable for work. Data-driven models, namely support vector machines for regression (SVRs), regression, and two decision trees (namely C5.0 and CART) were employed in this study as forecasting techniques to predict the wind velocity on Orchid Island, Taiwan, the study site. Structure reference load analysis was performed using a finite element model to evaluate the reference load on an experimental tank under construction. Typhoons Nanmadol (2011) and Saola (2012) were selected for real-time simulation by using the proposed CWEFS. This study identified potential collapses by using 1- to 6-h-ahead wind speed predictions. However, prediction errors inevitably occur. The results showed that the SVRs provided excellent prediction accuracy compared with regression, C5.0, and CART regarding the average time error between the observed and predicted values in all structure scenarios. A high forecast time error might result in increased construction costs and delays in construction schedules. Thus, we suggest that shorter prediction windows (e.g., 1 and 2 h) and models with higher prediction accuracy (e.g., SVR and C5.0) be employed to create a reasonable warning system.
Relation: 168 pp.48-59
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50178
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 期刊論文

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
index.html0KbHTML19View/Open


All items in NTOUR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.

 


著作權政策宣告: 本網站之內容為國立臺灣海洋大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,請合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。
網站維護: 海大圖資處 圖書系統組
DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback