English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 26988/38789
Visitors : 2322837      Online Users : 35
RC Version 4.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Adv. Search
LoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50172

Title: Regional Forecasting of Wind Speeds during Typhoon Landfall in Taiwan: A Case Study of Westward-Moving Typhoons
Authors: Chih-Chiang Wei
Po-Chun Peng
Cheng-Han Tsai
Chien-Lin Huang
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊系
Keywords: typhoon
wind speed
neural networks
prediction
Date: 2018-04
Issue Date: 2018-09-18T07:35:45Z
Publisher: Atmosphere
Abstract: Abstract: Taiwan is located on a route where typhoons often strike. Each year, the strong winds accompanying typhoons are a substantial threat and cause significant damage. However, because the terrains of high mountains in Taiwan vary greatly, when a typhoon passes the Central Mountain Range (CMR), the wind speed of typhoons becomes difficult to predict. This research had two primary objectives: (1) to develop data-driven techniques and a powerful artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the highly complex nonlinear wind systems in western Taiwan; and, (2) to investigate the accuracy of wind speed predictions at various locations and for various durations in western Taiwan when the track of westward typhoons is affected by the complex geographical shelters and disturbances of the CMR. This study developed a typhoon wind speed prediction model that evaluated various typhoon tracks (covering Type 2, Type 3, and Type 4 tracks, as defined by the Central Weather Bureau), and evaluated the prediction accuracy at Hsinchu, Wuqi, and Kaohsiung Stations in western Taiwan. Back propagation neural networks (BPNNs) were employed to establish wind speed prediction models, and a linear regression model was adopted as the benchmark to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the BPNNs. The results were as follows: (1) The BPNNs generally had favorable performance in predicting wind speeds and their performances were superior to linear regressions; (2) when absolute errors were adopted to evaluate the prediction performances, the predictions at Hsinchu Station were the most accurate, whereas those at Wuqi Station were the least accurate; however, when relative errors were adopted, the predictions at Hsinchu Station were again the most accurate, whereas those at Kaohsiung were the least accurate; and, (3) regarding the relative error rates for the maximum wind speed of Types 2, 3, and 4 typhoons, Wuqi, Kaohsiung, and Wuqi had the most accurate performance, respectively; as for maximum wind time error (ETM) for Types 2, 3, and 4 typhoons, Kaohsiung, Wuqi, and Wuqi correspondingly performed the most favorably.
Relation: 9(4)
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50172
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 期刊論文

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
index.html0KbHTML22View/Open


All items in NTOUR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.

 


著作權政策宣告: 本網站之內容為國立臺灣海洋大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,請合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。
網站維護: 海大圖資處 圖書系統組
DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback