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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50105

Title: Circulation and Intrusions Northeast of Taiwan: Chasing and Predicting Uncertainty in the Cold Dome
Authors: Glen Gawarkiewicz
Sen Jan
Pierre F.J Lermusiaux
Julie L McClean
Luca Centurioni
Kevin Taylor
Bruce Cornuelle
Timothy F.Duda
Joe Wang
Yiing Jiang Yang
Thomas Sanford
Ren-Chieh Lien
Craig M. Lee
Ming-An Lee
Wayne Leslie
Patrick J. Haley Jr
Pearn P. Niiler
Ganesh Gopalakrishnan
Pedro Velez-Belchi
Dong-Kyu Lee
Yoo Yin Kim
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:環境生物與漁業科學學系
Date: 2011-12
Issue Date: 2018-09-14T08:46:07Z
Publisher: Oceanography
Abstract: Abstract: An important element of present oceanographic research is the assessment and quantification of uncertainty. These studies are challenging in the coastal ocean due to the wide variety of physical processes occurring on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. In order to assess new methods for quantifying and predicting uncertainty, a joint Taiwan-US field program was undertaken in August/September 2009 to compare model forecasts of uncertainties in ocean circulation and acoustic propagation, with high-resolution in situ observations. The geographical setting was the continental shelf and slope northeast of Taiwan, where a feature called the “cold dome” frequently forms. Even though it is hypothesized that Kuroshio subsurface intrusions are the water sources for the cold dome, the dome’s dynamics are highly uncertain, involving multiple scales and many interacting ocean features. During the experiment, a combination of near-surface and profiling drifters, broad-scale and high-resolution hydrography, mooring arrays, remote sensing, and regional ocean model forecasts of fields and uncertainties were used to assess mean fields and uncertainties in the region. River runoff from Typhoon Morakot, which hit Taiwan August 7–8, 2009, strongly affected shelf stratification. In addition to the river runoff, a cold cyclonic eddy advected into the region north of the Kuroshio, resulting in a cold dome formation event. Uncertainty forecasts were successfully employed to guide the hydrographic sampling plans. Measurements and forecasts also shed light on the evolution of cold dome waters, including the frequency of eddy shedding to the north-northeast, and interactions with the Kuroshio and tides. For the first time in such a complex region, comparisons between uncertainty forecasts and the model skill at measurement locations validated uncertainty forecasts. To complement the real-time model simulations, historical simulations with another model show that large Kuroshio intrusions were associated with low sea surface height anomalies east of Taiwan, suggesting that there may be some degree of predictability for Kuroshio intrusions.
Relation: 24(4) pp.110 - 121
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/50105
Appears in Collections:[環境生物與漁業科學學系] 期刊論文

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