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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/48080

Title: 中國與北美空運旅客運量分析之研究
The analysis for air passenger traffic between China and North America
Authors: Chang, Chun
張 淳
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Shipping and Transportation Management
國立臺灣海洋大學:航運管理學系
Keywords: 旅客運量;直達航班;轉運航班;多元迴歸模式;總體羅吉特模式
Passenger Volume;Direct Flight;Transferring Flight;Multinomial Regression Analysis Model;Aggregate Logit Model
Date: 2017
Issue Date: 2018-08-08T03:55:55Z
Abstract: 中國大陸自近年經濟大幅成長,航空運輸市場需求急遽上升,根據波音與空中巴士的預測,中國大陸對於飛機之需求量在未來20年會大幅提升,已成為全球主要旅運消費市場之一,並擁有大量的商務及國際旅運市場客源。兩岸航班自2003年由臺灣執行首班上海單向春節包機,迄今已逾14年,實現兩岸首次飛航,現階段兩岸因政治因素,大陸居民尚無法經由臺灣轉機前往其他國家,開放「陸客中轉」是臺灣航空業界關心的議題,如果臺灣桃園機場能成為中國大陸旅客選擇轉機地點選項,除對我國籍航空業者帶來利多,亦能增進臺灣桃園機場的旅運量,有助於臺灣之經濟發展,並期望成為區域航空轉運中心。 本研究以2015年中國大陸各機場前往美國洛杉磯機場、紐約甘迺迪機場以及加拿大溫哥華機場之旅運量及票價資料為基礎,彙整該年內於中國大陸市場與北美之間航班數量、航線、票價、旅客數以及中轉機場數量等影響因素,應用迴歸分析以及總體羅吉特模式,以分析及預測中國大陸市場經由中轉機場(仁川、成田、香港、台北)前往北美選擇航線之情形。 經迴歸分析之結果顯示,東向旅運人數與中轉機場數量以及中轉機場經成田機場都呈現負相關,中轉機場經中國內部轉運、經仁川機場、經香港機場、經桃園機場、經美國內部轉運、平均票價以及直達都呈現正相關;西向旅運人數與中轉機場數量呈現負相關,平均票價、中轉機場經仁川機場、成田機場、香港機場、桃園機場、經美國內部轉運、經中國內部轉運以及直達呈現正相關。 經羅吉特模式之結果顯示,東向在模式三中,只有航空公司家數為正值。結果中可以看出中轉桃園機場以及轉機機場數量呈現非常顯著關係,但是票價之係數呈現負值;西向之航空公司數量、聯營與否以及平均轉機機場數量為正值。結果中可以看出中轉桃園機場以及票價取自然對數呈現顯著關係,且票價之係數呈現負值。
Due to the economy of China increases rapidly in recent years, the demand for air transportation in China has become one of the main markets in the world. According to the forecast of Boeing and Airbus, the demand for air planes in China will have a lot of growth in next 20 years, and China has become one of the travelers and passengers countries in the world. After the first cross–strait charter flight executed from Taiwan to Shanghai in 2003, achieving the first time cross–strait flight in history, because of the political issues between the two sides, mainland Chinese residents are still unable to have a transit flight via Taiwan to the other destinations. Cross–strait flight for China transferring via Taiwan is one of the most important issues in Taiwan. If Taoyuan International Airport can become the transit airport option to mainland Chinese travelers, it does not only increase the profit of Taiwan’s national airliners but also increase the passenger immigration volume of Taoyuan International Airport, once it is successful, and Taiwan’s economy will grow and wish that Taiwan can become a regional air transportation hub. This research aims at the whole China airports which fly to Los Angeles International Airport, John F. Kennedy International Airport, and Vancouver International Airport in 2015, based on flight volume, flight route, fare, passenger volume, and the number of the transferring airport, then using the linear regression analysis and aggregate logit model to analyze and predict the circumstances that China flies to the North America. According to the results of Multinomial Regression Analysis, the number of passengers who transferring at inside China, Incheon, Hong Kong, Taoyuan, inside America, average fare, and direct flight has a positive relationship with east bound passengers. The number of passengers who transferring at Incheon, Narita, Hong Kong, Taoyuan, inside America, inside China, average fare, and direct flight has a positive relationship with west bound passengers. According to the results of Aggregate Logit Model, in the model 3 of east bound shows that the number of passengers who transferring at Taoyuan airport and the number of transferring airports have a significant relationship with the number of east bound passengers, but the average fare has a negative relationship with the number of east bound passengers. In the model 3 of west bound shows that the number of passengers who transferring at Taoyuan airport and the Log(Fare)has significant relationship with the number of west bound passengers, but the average fare has a negative relationship with the number of west bound passengers.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010473020.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/48080
Appears in Collections:[航運管理學系] 博碩士論文

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