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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/46903

Title: Development of a weighted probabilistic risk assessment method for offshore engineering systems using fuzzy rule-based Bayesian reasoning approach
Authors: Shuen-Tai Ung
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:商船學系
Keywords: Bayesian reasoning
Offshore safety
Probabilistic risk assessment
Approximate reasoning
Fuzzy rule inference
Date: 2018
Issue Date: 2018-06-11T07:08:04Z
Publisher: Ocean Engineering
Abstract: Abstract: This study presents a new safety methodology that is capable of transforming qualitative expert judgement into probabilistic risk outcomes for offshore engineering systems. In the framework, fuzzy set theory is applied to describe variables. Fuzzy data of each input is expressed in terms of the belief degree format representing the extent to which the fuzzy data belongs to the associated fuzzy set. Such data is subsequently combined to derive appropriate consequents using a fuzzy rule approach considering the weights of each input. The information generated in the antecedent and consequent of each rule are then synthesized to reach the fuzzy conclusions using the Bayesian reasoning approach. Such fuzzy conclusions are defuzzified and consequently transformed into the probabilistic nature. The framework is validated using two axioms and demonstrated by a risk study of the propulsion malfunction of an offshore Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) during tandem offloading operations. The results are consistent with the axioms since the outcomes are sensitive to the minor alterations of input data and weights. It is concluded that the new approach produces reasonable results considering input weights and the logicality between inputs and outputs without losing too much useful information in the inference process.
Relation: 147 pp.268-276
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/46903
Appears in Collections:[商船學系] 期刊論文

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