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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/46902

Title: Human error assessment of oil tanker grounding
Authors: Shuen-Tai Ung
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:商船學系
Keywords: Bayesian reasoning
Oil tanker grounding
Human error assessment
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Fuzzy Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM)
Fuzzy rules
Date: 2018
Issue Date: 2018-06-11T07:00:44Z
Publisher: Safety Science
Abstract: Abstract: Human error plays an important role triggering ship tragedies. Human error assessment of marine accidents is troublesome due to the lack or incompleteness of data. Some studies generate results in a form of priority weights rather than a probabilistic nature. Others produce Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) without the consideration of quantitative effects caused by the individual, technological, contextual and organizational factors or using the human performance data from nuclear power plants. This paper proposes a risk study evaluating the human error contribution to oil tanker grounding. A group of 6 experts with substantial seagoing experience is invited to provide professional judgement for oil tanker navigation. This research establishes a logical safety structure of oil tanker grounding based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) under which a novel fuzzy Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM) model is constructed. By virtue of Bayesian Reasoning, the parameter synthesis process fully deliberates all useful information from each rule and derives reasonable outcomes. This study reinforces the logicality between Common Performance Conditions (CPC) observations and Contextual Control Mode (COCOM). The probability of ship powered grounding is acquired accordingly. Furthermore, fatigue and Collision Regulation (COLREG) violations are the vital elements triggering ship groundings according to the sensitivity analysis.
Relation: 104 pp.16-28
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/46902
Appears in Collections:[商船學系] 期刊論文

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