National Taiwan Ocean University Institutional Repository:Item 987654321/43624
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 27314/39158
造访人次 : 2471642      在线人数 : 139
RC Version 4.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 进阶搜寻


题名: Predicting the water level fluctuation in an alpine lake using physically based, artificial neural network, and time series forecasting models
作者: Chih-Chieh Young;W.-C. Liu;W.-L. Hsieh
贡献者: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊學系
日期: 2015-07
上传时间: 2017-10-19T03:56:08Z
出版者: Mathematical Problems in Engineering
摘要: Abstract:Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL) in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN) model (back propagation neural network, BPNN), a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX) model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations) was collected for model calibration (training) and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation) were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.
關聯: 61
显示于类别:[海洋環境資訊系] 期刊論文





著作權政策宣告: 本網站之內容為國立臺灣海洋大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,請合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。
網站維護: 海大圖資處 圖書系統組
DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈