National Taiwan Ocean University Institutional Repository:Item 987654321/43624
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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/43624

Title: Predicting the water level fluctuation in an alpine lake using physically based, artificial neural network, and time series forecasting models
Authors: Chih-Chieh Young;W.-C. Liu;W.-L. Hsieh
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊學系
Date: 2015-07
Issue Date: 2017-10-19T03:56:08Z
Publisher: Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Abstract: Abstract:Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL) in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN) model (back propagation neural network, BPNN), a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX) model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations) was collected for model calibration (training) and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation) were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.
Relation: 61
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/43624
Appears in Collections:[Department of Marine Environmental Informatics] Periodical Articles

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