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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/42976

Title: 氣候變遷對大台北地區水資源供需之衝擊評估
Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply in Taipei
Authors: Chen, Po-Ting
陳柏廷
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 氣候變遷;翡翠水庫;水筒模式;風險評估
Climate change;Feitsui reservoir;Tank model;Risk assessment
Date: 2015
Issue Date: 2017-05-24T08:40:15Z
Abstract: 本研究以翡翠水庫上游集水區為研究區域,探討氣候變遷下翡翠水庫集水區流量之變化,並評估氣候變遷對大台北地區供水之影響。本研究採用SRES A1B情境下之五種大氣環流模式(General circulation models),並使用加拿大CCCma_CGCm3、法國CNRM_Cm3、澳洲CSIRO_Mk3.0、美國GFDL_Cm2.0與中國大陸LASG_FGOAL-g1.0等五種模式所輸出之未來氣象資料,做為未來2046-2065年氣象資料來源,代入水筒模式推估未來翡翠水庫入流量,便可依水庫操作規則模擬未來2046-2065年翡翠水庫供水之情形。 情境一,於未來2046-2065年每日供水345萬噸之情況下,各模式平均公共缺水指數為0.19,其中以CSIRO之0.54最高,GFDL之0.02最低;情境二增加50萬噸供水時,各模式平均公共缺水指數為0.42,其中以CSIRO之1.22最高,GFDL之0.05最低;情境三增加100萬噸供水時,各模式平均公共缺水指數為0.93,其中以CSIRO之2.29最高,GFDL之0.24最低;最後反推公共缺水指數為0.1時,各模式平均安全日出水量為352萬噸,其中以CSIRO之260萬噸最低,GFDL之420萬噸最高。 結果分析顯示氣候變遷下翡翠水庫入流量有減少之趨勢,但其中有些模式降雨時間分布較現況平均,因此推估出未來大台北地區缺水情況將少於現況,若未來供水情況良好,將可以多支援板新地區之用水。五種模式之推估結果大不相同,顯示出氣候變遷分析中充滿不確定性,未來亦可考慮採用不同模式相互進行比較與評估,供政府決策單位視情況參考本研究之分析,並適時擬定相關策略。
The goal of this research is to estimate the watershed discharge, and try to assess the impact on water supply for Feitsui reservoir under climate change. This research chooses five SRES A1B GCMs (General circulation models) : CCCma_CGCm3, CNRM_Cm3, CSIRO_Mk3.0,GFDL_Cm2.0 SRES A1B GCMs LASG_FGOAL-g1.0 for the future (2046-2065) meteorological data. With the tank model, the future inflow conditions of Feitsui reservoir would be estimated. By the future inflow, demand and reservoir operation rule, the risk of water supply of Feitsui reservoir would be assessed. There are three scenarios for the future water demand of the Taipei area that Feitsui reservoir has the resposibility. For scenario 1, the daily demand is 3.45 million tons, the maximum shortage index (SI) would be 0.54 (CSIRO), the minmum SI would be 0.02 (GFDL), and the average SI of five models would be 0.19. For scenario 2, the daily demand increase to 3.95 million tons, the maximum SI would be 1.22 (CSIRO), the minmum SI would be 0.05 (GFDL), and the average SI would be 0.42. For scenario 3, the daily demand is up to 4.45 million tons, the maximum SI would be 2.29 (CSIRO), the minmum SI would be 0.24 (GFDL), and the average SI would be 0.93. In addition, suppose the SI be 0.1, the average daily supply would be 3.52 milion tons. This would be thought as a reliable supply of Feisui reservoir. To summarize under climate change, although the future inflow of Feitsui reservoir would decrease, the future water shortage in Taipei area would be more light than the present because of even rainfall in time.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010252043.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/42976
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 博碩士論文

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