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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/42902

Title: HHT推估未來降雨及溫度之研究
Generation of Rainfall and Temperature Data by Using HHT
Authors: Chang, Kuang-Ching
張光謦
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 希爾伯特黃轉換;本質模態函數;資料推估
Hilbert-Huang transform;Intrinsic Mode Function;Generation
Date: 2014
Issue Date: 2017-05-24T08:39:36Z
Abstract: 本研究以臺北、臺中、臺南、臺東為研究地區,分別收集50年以上月溫度資料與100年以上月雨量資料,利用希爾伯特黃轉換(Hilbert-Huang Transform, HHT)程序,以經驗模態分解法(Empirical Mode Decomposition)將資料拆解成本質模態函數(Intrinsic Mode Functions,IMFs)及趨勢分量,並加以推估未來趨勢分量,將歷史IMFs與未來趨勢分量重組來繁衍未來20年氣象資料(西元2014~2033年)。 文中以K-S檢定(Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test)分別對多組IMFs的邊際頻譜(Marginal Spectrum)探討其統計特性之差異,結果顯示各組IMFs之間特性差異不大,可視為同一筆資料,並在趨勢分量為已知假設下,進行繁衍模式之可行性驗證,再進一步分析趨勢分量推估未來趨勢分量之能力優劣,最後將IMFs與推估的趨勢分量組合成未來氣象資料,並以統計檢定分析歷史資料與未來資料其平均值的差異,結果顯示臺南與臺東站雨量差異不大,臺北與臺中站歷史與未來年平均雨量略有差異,臺北與臺中未來雨量較歷史雨量增加,溫度方面四站溫度差異皆不大。
In this study, four meteorological stations (Taipei, Taichung, Tainan and Taitung) are chosen, meanwhile, the monthly temperature and rainfall data over 50 and 100 years respectively are adopted. Through the Hilbert-Huang Transform, meteorological data would be decomposed by Empirical Mode Decomposition into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and trend. For generating the meteorological projection during 2014-2033, we would just combine the IMFs with projection of trend. Here the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test is adopted for examining the distribution equality of Marginal Spectrums of different groups in a specific duration. Next, the ability of data generation is evaluated under a given trend. Finally, compose the IMFs with projection of the trend to generate the meteorological projection, and test the difference of means of the present and future. As a result, the distribution equality is approved in frequency domain. Moreover, for temperature, the difference between the projection and present is insignificant in all stations. For rainfall, the difference between the projection and present is significant in Taipei and Taichung station; meanwhile, the temperature at all stations would be insignificant from the present situation.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010152047.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/42902
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 博碩士論文

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