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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/42874

Title: 應用定率法推估降雨引致淺層崩塌警戒值之研究-以高屏溪流域為例
Using the Deterministic Method to Estimate the Warn Monitoring Value of Rainfall Induced Shallow Landslide in Gaoping Watershed Area.
Authors: Yin, Li-Chung
尹立中
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 淺層崩塌;定率法;TRIGRS模式;安全係數;警戒值
Shallow landslide;Deterministic method;TRIGRS model;Factor of safety;Warn mornitoring value
Date: 2014
Issue Date: 2017-05-24T08:39:22Z
Abstract:   受到全球氣候變遷影響,近年來於臺灣所發生之極端降雨事件頻繁,降雨強度與降雨延時的增加,使得臺灣山區及坡地居民受到崩塌災害事件的極大威脅。本研究即針對臺灣發生崩塌災害事件頻繁之高屏溪流域,首先考量高屏溪流域地質物理特性,並且依據過去發生之崩塌災害案例進行研究區分區,應用崩塌分析定率法,採用美國USGS所發展之TRIGRS模式,及選擇2009年發生莫拉克颱風做為情境分析進行高屏溪流域的模擬,建立出高屏溪流域之地質物理參數組,並評估情境模擬分析下高屏溪地區安全係數變化情形。考量颱風豪雨事件當下應變所需要之反應時間,提出適宜高屏溪流域之各鄉鎮崩塌警戒安全係數;並利用高屏溪地區之設計雨型進行模擬,探討高屏溪流域在設計雨型的情境下,其安全係數之變化情形,以評估計算當安全係數下降至崩塌警戒安全係數值時其累積雨量值,藉以建立高屏溪流域各鄉鎮之崩塌警戒累積雨量值。   本研究應用定率法之評估結果,提出高屏溪流域紅色警戒安全係數值為1.12、黃色警戒安全係數值為1.15,並且經由設計雨型的模擬,評估出高屏溪流域各鄉鎮之崩塌警戒累積雨量值;並比對行政院農委會水土保持局及國家災害防救科技中心目前所使用以鄉鎮為劃分單元之坡地災害警戒累積雨量,發現與本研究所提出應用定率法所分析之警戒累積雨量呈現大致相同之趨勢。因此本研究應用定率法並且考量應變時間下所定義之崩塌警戒累積雨量值,其結果應可提供防災及應變單位做為洪颱期間警戒發布之研判依據。   最後利用實際災害案例做為模擬操作,選擇2010年發生之凡那比颱風針對高屏溪流域六龜區進行模擬,以探討本研究所評估之崩塌警戒值適用狀況,以及當各級警戒發布後,距離實際崩塌災害發生時間是否保有足夠之應變時間,供應變單位及民眾在警戒發布後採取適當的反應作為;經由案例操作成果顯示,當六龜區之安全係數下降約至黃色警戒時,距離實際災害發生可保留10小時之應變時間,而當安全係數下降約至紅色警戒時,距離實際災害發生可保留9小時之應變時間,應可確保各式防災作為有足夠之操作時間。另經由本研究之模擬,可得知當洪颱事件進行時六龜地區廣域安全係數變化,藉以得知較不穩定區塊之分布。其評估結果顯示:六龜區於凡那比颱風事件下較不穩定區位有荖濃里西北側、新發里東側、興龍里東側、文武里西側、中興里東側及大津里東側共六處。並由水保局重大土石災情報告中的記錄顯示,凡那比颱風期間六龜區總共發生五場崩塌災害事件,分別為荖濃里一場、文武里一場以及大津里三場,皆屬於本研究模式運算所推估之較不穩定區域,顯示出本研究所提出之方法對於研判不穩定地區以及提高撤離聚落發布之準確度是有顯著的成效,足以提供做為洪颱期間防災應變之重要參考。
  Under the influence of climate change, extreme rainfall events with high intensity and long duration frequently occurred in Taiwan area. It oftenthreatens the safety of people living in mountain area. This study focuses on the Gaoping river where landslide occur frequently. Firstly, considering the geological characteristics of Gaoping River is required. According to the past landslide events, the study area can be divided by different zones. The TRIGRS model developed by USGS and the landslide analytical methods the deterministic is chosen to analyze. Then, this study adopted Morakot Typhoon occurred in 2009 to simulate on Gaoping river area. Therefore, therelated geophysical parameters of Gaoping river area are established and the factor of safety in the various situations can be assessed. Considering the required time for typhoon events, the study proposes the factor of safety for township. The design rainfall pattern for Gaoping river is chosen. Finally, this study simulates the accumulated rainfall when the factor of safety drops to the drawing warning levels of landslide occurrence.   The result of this study estimates that the red and yellow warn monitoring value was proposed byfactor of safety are 1.12 and 1.15, respectively. Due to the simulation of design rainfall pattern, accumulated rainfall occurring in different areas can be calculated. In order to identify this method, the model verification is alsoperformed. The warm accumulated rainfall which SWCB, NCDR and this method develop are roughly the similarly tendency. Therefore, the result of this study can be proposed for the practical application of prevention disaster.   Finally, Liugui area is chosen and by use of the typhoon Fanapi as situation to simulate and to assess the threshold whether can apply in this study. The results showed that the Liugui its factor of safety drop down to the yellow warm factor of safety, it has 10 hours to the landslide. And the factor of safety drop down to the red warm factor of safety, it has 9 hours to the landslide. This time can provide the government agencies of hazardmitigation to apply. From the study simulation, it can find the distribution of the factor of safety on the study area. The evaluation results of Ligui relatively unstable area at typhoon Fanapi including the northwest side in Laonong, the east side in Xinfa, the east side in Xinlong, the west side in Wenwu, the east side in Zhongxing and the east side in Dajin total of six. From the SWCB disaster report, Liugui area total occurred 5 landslide during the typhoon Fanapi, were Laonong once, Wenwu once and Dajin three times, all belong to the result of simulation. The result shows we can use it to judge the unstable area and improve the efficiency of hazard mitigation, provided the reference of government agencies of hazard mitigation.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=G0010152017.id
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/42874
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 博碩士論文

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