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TAPEX;Rainfall characteristic analog methodology;Rainfall-runoff model
|Issue Date: ||2017-05-05T06:59:46Z
|Abstract: ||摘要:臺灣地區地形陡峻，降雨強度集中，往往釀成重大災害，若能於防救災應變作業時獲知準確的降雨與洪水預報資訊以採取妥善措施，將可減輕災害損失。為提供颱風期間定量降雨預估資訊協助防救災相關單位參考與應用，國家實驗研究院台灣颱風洪水研究中心整合國內學研界與作業單位研發能量與經驗，執行台灣定量降雨系集實驗(TaiwanCooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment, TAPEX)。然而，現階段TAPEX對流域尺度之未來1~6小時之雨量推估仍有較大的不確定，故需先對TAPEX時雨量預估資訊進行整合，降低未來1~6小時雨量預估的不確定性並提升預估準確度。接著，再利用已整合之降雨預估資訊結合降雨逕流模式，發展降雨結合逕流之即時預報技術。本研究針對濁水溪流域，首先探討TAPEX對該流域未來1~6小時雨量的推估表現；接著，採用降雨特性類比法整合TAPEX雨量預估資訊以預估濁水溪流域未來1~6小時降雨情況，並選用以地文為基礎之降雨逕流模式結合即時校正機制，推估濁水溪之寶石橋、龍門橋與延平橋集水區未來1~6小時流量。研究結果顯示，整合後之未來1~6小時雨量預估資訊確有較低的不確定性與較高的預估準確度，且本研究所發展之即時預報技術可提供合理之逕流歷線，流量預測結果與紀錄具有良好之一致性。未來可即時提供防救災單位正確時雨量預估資訊與逕流量之即時警訊，減少傷亡與損失。
Abstract:Due to the steep topography and concentrated rainfall intensity, tremendous disasters frequently occur in Taiwan. If accurate information about future rainfall and floods could be provided to the work of disaster prevention and mitigation, the loss of life and property would be reduced. Therefore, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, which belonged to the National Applied Research Laboratories, cooperates with academic and research institutions to perform Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX) for providing typhoon rainfall forecasts to disaster prevention agencies. However, at present time, 1- to 6-h ahead rainfall forecasts from TAPEX are with highly uncertainty. It is necessary to improve the accuracy of rainfall forecasts provided by TAPEX for hydrologic forecasting. In this study, we first adopted a rainfall characteristic analog methodology to yield the improved 1- to 6-h ahead rainfall forecasts. Then, these rainfall forecasts are used as inputs to a geomorphology-based rainfall-runoff model combined with an updating scheme to generate the 1- to 6-h ahead flow forecasts. These real-time rainfall and runoff forecasting techniques are actually applied to the Cho-Shui River basin. For rainfall forecasting, the results show that by applying the rainfall characteristic analog methodology on the 1- to 6-h ahead rainfall forecasts from TAPEX, the forecasting uncertainty is reduced and the performance is improved. As to runoff forecasting, the geomorphology-based rainfall-runoff model combined with an updating scheme is applied to the Pao-Shih Bridge, the Lung-Men Bridge, and the Yen-Ping Bridge watersheds in the Cho-Shui River basin. The results indicate that the rainfall-runoff model can provide reasonable hydrograph forecasting, and both the forecasted and recorded hydrographs are in good agreement in the study watersheds. It is therefore considered promising to apply the proposed real-time rainfall and runoff forecasting techniques for accurate rainfall and runoff forecasts to disaster prevention agencies to reduce the loss of life and property.
|Relation: ||63(1), pp.14-25|
|Appears in Collections:||[河海工程學系] 期刊論文|
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