|Abstract: ||摘要 近年來全球能源供需狀態與溫室氣體排放日益受到重視，為了保障氣候變異的影響與臺灣能源安全問題，減少化石燃料依賴性成為臺灣能源政策的共識，於是再生能源變成可行的方案之一，再生能源創造的綠色經濟效益已然是世界趨勢。風能發展是世界積極執行的能源目標之一，臺灣地形四面環海，夏、冬兩季受到季風影響，具風力產業之稟賦，適合發展風力發電能源。截至2012年為止臺灣陸域式風電裝置容量已經超過600MW，離岸式風電則預估有很大的發展潛力，依「風力發電離岸系統示範獎勵辦法」目標而言，可於2030年達成3,000MW的離岸式風電裝置容量，所以臺灣若發展風力發電產業，冀望可帶動經濟成長。 能源產業的研發受到政府重視，因此本研究以投入產出分析(Input-Output Analysis)評估風力發電產業對臺灣的經濟影響，由於投入產出分析適合應用在資源、能源、環境等研究情境上，故本文利用投入產出166部門探討陸域式與離岸式風力發電對臺灣總體經濟與相關產業的效益。最後藉以輔助政府進行相關政策的執行，或是對投資風力發電的參考依據，更進一步盼望能提供我國進行再生能源選擇上的助益。 本文以「千架海陸風力機」政策為主，透過學習曲線理論並搭配三個模擬情境進行分析，模擬一探究投資陸域式風力發電的經濟效益評估；模擬二探究投資離岸式風力發電的經濟效益評估；模擬三探究投資陸域式與離岸式風力的工程建設對臺灣相關上下游產業的影響。 研究結果發現，模擬一於2006年新增陸域式風電後將增加11.66億元的產值，投資陸域式風電產業至2020年將使全體產值增加977.69億元，全體GDP增加242.25億元，總投資乘數為4.03倍；模擬二於2006年新增離岸式風電後將增加1.41億元的產值，投資離岸式風電產業至2030年將使全體產值增加6,680.07億元，全體GDP增加1,849.86億元，總投資乘數為3.61倍；模擬三投資陸域式風電土地建設產業將使全體產值增加50.1億元，全體GDP增加15.31億元，總投資乘數為3.27倍，投資離岸式風電海事工程產業將使全體產值增加907.06億元，全體GDP增加277.28億元，總投資乘數為3.27倍。 實證得出風力發電的產業關聯特性是容易帶動上游產業發展，投資後陸域式風力發電的產出乘數為4.69，所得乘數為13.23；投資後離岸式風力發電的產出乘數為8.15，所得乘數為33.05，所以是值得政府與民間企業參與投資研發的新興能源產業。 本研究評估CO2減量與能源自產率後結果顯示，2012到2030年陸域式加上離岸式風力發電的CO2減量效益可達全臺灣2,336.92萬公噸；2012到2030年的能源自給率會從2.25%逐年增加至2.98%，透過這兩種能源安全指標都可以顯示風力發電產業將有助於臺灣的經濟發展。 最後，本文依照模擬結果得出風力發電產業有利臺灣經濟的發展，並針對大型風力機、中小型風力機、環境保育三個方面上提出政策建議，用以提供未來決策者以及研究學者一個參考的方向。|
Abstract In recent years, the state of the global energy supply and demand as well as the greenhouse gas emissions has been gaining more attention than before. In order to reduce the impact of climate change and secure the energy, to lower the dependence on fossil fuels becomes a consensus of forming Taiwan's energy policy. Thus, the renewable energy becomes one of the possible solutions to solve the above mentioned problems. Among the renewable energy, the wind energy is one of the world's active implementations to fufil the energy goals. Taiwan is an island which is suitable for the development of wind power energy for monsoon during the summer and winter seasons. Taiwan onshore wind power installed capacity has more than 600MW as of 2012. In contract, the offshore wind power is estimated to reach the installed capacity of 3,000MW in 2030. The development of offshore wind power industry certainly will promote the economic growth in Taiwan. To develop related energy industry is one of Taiwanese government’s priorites, not only to the energy security, but also the economic developemnt. In this study, an input-output analysis has been used to assess the economic impact of the wind power industry in Taiwan for the method of input-output analysis suitable for applications in the resources, energy and environmental research scenario. Thus, this study discussed the use of input-output 166 sectors in analyzing the benefits generating from the onshore and offshore wind power industries to Taiwan's overall economy and related industries. Finally, the results from this research could be used to implement the energy policy, provide a reference on investment option for related wind power products. In this study, "one thousand onshore and offshore wind turbine" policy mainly through the learning curve theory and simulation with three scenarios for analysis, scenario one research the economic benefits of investment onshore wind; scenario two research the economic benefits of investment offshore wind; scenario three research investment the construction of onshore and offshore wind on Taiwan-related effects on downstream industries. Three scenarios are discussied in this study. Empirical results found that onshore wind power will increase 1.166 billion NT dollars in 2006, investment land wind power industry to 2020 increased by 97.769 billion NT dollars, GDP increased by 24.225 billion NT dollars, and the total investment multiplier is 4.03 from the acenario one. The offshore wind power will increase 141 million NT dollars in 2006, investment offshore wind power industry to 2030 increased by 6,680.07 billion NT dollars, GDP increased by 1,849.86 billion NT dollars, and the total investment multiplier is 3.61 in scenario two. In scenario three, the onshore wind power investment in the construction industry will increase 5.01 billion NT dollars, GDP will increase 1.531 billion NT dollars, the total investment multiplier is 3.27, offshore wind power industry will increase 90.706 billion NT dollars, GDP will increase 27.728 billion NT dollars, and total investment multiplier is also 3.27. Empirical results indicate that wind power industry is likely to drive the development of upstream industries, the output multiplier after investment onshore wind power is 4.69, the income multiplier is 13.23; the output multiplier after investment offshore wind power is 8.15, the income multiplier is 33.05, so it is worth to invest for the state-own and private enterprises to participate in the development of new energy industries in Taiwan. This study also estimated the quantity of CO2 reduction and the rate of self-sufficient energy production from 2012 to 2030. Results show that CO2 reduction can reach 2,336.92 million tonnes and the rate of self-sufficient energy increase from 2.25% to 2.98% annually. From both energy security indicators, they show that the wind power industry is likely to contribute the economic development in Taiwan. Finally, in accordance with the simulation results obtained favorable wind power industry in Taiwan's economic development, and three aspects of policy recommendations for the large-scale wind turbines, small wind turbines and environmental conservation for future decision-makers and researchers to provide a reference direction.