|Abstract: ||近年來由於環保意識抬頭，再生能源越來越受到國際的重視及發展。在眾多再生能源中，地熱能具有抗災害能力佳、無間歇性等優點，固可當作基載電力成為未來取代化石燃料的新能源。臺灣因位於板塊邊界交會上因此擁有豐富的地熱資源，這更是我國發展地熱發電的一大優勢，因此更值得發我國投入。本文將針對地熱發電產業在臺灣之發展可行性與經濟影響進行評估。可計算一般均衡模型相當適合衡量產業或經濟之政策影響，故本文將以全球可計算一般均衡模型(GTAP)進行臺灣地熱之政策模擬。由於日本和我國同樣都座落於火山板塊交接處之島國為高度仰賴火力與核能發電，因此都屬於島嶼型獨立電網系統。現今，日本政府正利用先天地熱能源充沛之優勢積極推展地熱發電，在諸多條件與日本相似的情況下，本研究將加入日本一同進行模擬，做為與臺灣比較的對照標竿國，藉以幫助政府進行相關產業扶植政策或對於投資技術研發之補助參考，並讓我國發展再生能源時提供更適合的選擇。 本研究結果發現，發展地熱發電產業並投入技術研發，使地熱發電成本降低30%下，將帶動臺灣實質國內生產毛額、電力部門產值、社會福利水準等經濟指標提升，也可以達到平抑電價上漲和穩定臺灣之總體物價水準的效果；在模擬臺灣與日本分別衝擊國內地熱發電部門產量提升1%下，結果顯示臺灣有一半的產業變動之影響幅度優於日本，這也反映出臺灣在發展地熱發電產業之投資確實具有經濟效益；此外，在評估地熱相關產業對於發展地熱發電的帶動效果方面，結果則顯示出臺灣在各產業推動發展地熱發電產業初期的帶動效果並不明顯，要在長期推動下其影響力才會與日遞增，因此發展初期特別需要政府在技術及資金方面的支持和協助，才能吸引企業注入投資的意願；本文最後針對全面廢除核能發電與否的時事議題進行分析，結果顯示臺灣若持續推展地熱發電產業雖能減緩部分廢除核電帶來的經濟衝擊，但還是需要發展更多元的再生能源來合力填補核電之缺口。|
For the past few years, with the raising awareness of environmental protection, more and more countries endeavor to develop renewable energies as an alternative energy. Among the renewable energy, geothermal power has a lot of advantages such as durable and non-ointermittence which can make it be a new base-load power to replace the fossil energy. Because of being located at the cross point of three different plates, Taiwan possesses abundant geothermal resources. Therefore, it is a distinguished strength for us to develop geothermal electricity generation. This study focuses on developing geothermal electricity industries in Taiwan. Computable general equilibrium model is suitable for evaluating comprehensive and new industry issues, therefore, this study adopts the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to simulate the geothermal policy in Taiwan. Since Japan and our country are both located in the junction of the plate and also heavily dependent on thermal power and nuclear power .Today, the Japanese government are dedicated to promoting the geothermal power, under many similar conditions with Japan, this study will add Japan into simulation and compared it with Taiwan. Finally, we examine how it affects geothermal electricity industries in the future, and estimates the effect on the macroeconomics and industries, to support decision maker to invest on the related technologies in the future. The results of this study found that developing geothermal power generation industry and investing technology research will not only drive Taiwan real gross domestic product, the power sector output, social welfare standards and other economic indicators improve but also stabilize electricity price and the overall price level in Taiwan. Taiwan and Japan, respectively, under simulating impact on the domestic production of geothermal power generation sector to improve by 1%, the results show that many industries make more progresses in Taiwan than in Japan, which also reflects the investment of developing geothermal power generation industry in Taiwan does have economic benefits; Furthermore, when assessing the influence of developing geothermal power industry which caused by related industries, it shows the driven effect is not obvious in the beginning period, so we should cultivate it in a long-term patiently. In order to attract investment inclination from enterprise, the government’s assistance and support are necessary. Finally, the analysis for the abolition of nuclear power generation showed that although promoting geothermal power industry can slightly relieve the economic impact caused by losing nuclear power, it still needs to develop more diversified renewable energy sources to fill the huge gap.