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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/40237

Title: Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings
Authors: Chang-Chi Cheng
Nien-Sheng Hsu
Chih-Chiang Wei
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊學系
Keywords: Loss function
Decision-tree analysis
Reservoir release
Typhoon warnings
Date: 2008-01
Issue Date: 2017-01-16T07:07:03Z
Publisher: Natural Hazards
Abstract: Abstract: The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth of the total rainfall. And the water-resources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it accounts for a significant portion of the precipitation during wet seasons. Furthermore, as the storage of reservoirs is limited due to topographical factors, the management of typhoon rainfall has always been an important issue in Taiwan. The technique of decision-tree analysis is applied in this article to determine the optimal reservoir release in advance upon the issuance of a typhoon warning by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and the proposed methodology may provide solution to the trade-off judgment of reservoir operations between flood control and water supply according to economic efficiency. In this article, the economic loss functions of flooding damage and water-supply shortage are assumed in linear and nonlinear conditions, and the respective expected optimal releases based on the predicted precipitation as issued by CWB are derived. The proposed methodology has been applied to the Shihmen Reservoir System, and the capabilities of the model as an aid to real-time decision-making as well as the evaluation of the economic worth of forecasts is presented.
Relation: 44(1)
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/40237
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 期刊論文

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