English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 26992/38793
Visitors : 2385882      Online Users : 29
RC Version 4.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Adv. Search
LoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/40148

Title: Surface wind nowcasting in Penghu Islands based on classified typhoon tracks and the effects of the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan
Authors: Chih-Chiang Wei
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊學系
Keywords: Wind effects
Forecasting
Model evaluation/performance
Neural networks
Date: 2014-12
Issue Date: 2017-01-16T01:47:32Z
Publisher: Weather and Forecasting
Abstract: Abstract: The purposes of this study were to forecast the hourly typhoon wind velocity over the Penghu Islands, and to discuss the effects of the terrain of the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan over the Penghu Islands based on typhoon tracks. On average, a destructive typhoon hits the Penghu Islands every 15–20 yr. As a typhoon approaches the Penghu Islands, its track and intensity are influenced by the CMR topography. Therefore, CMR complicates the wind forecast of the Penghu Islands. Six main typhoon tracks (classes I–VI) are classified based on typhoon directions, as follows: (I) the direction of direct westward movement across the CMR of Taiwan, (II) the direction of northward movement along the eastern coast of Taiwan, (III) the direction of northward movement traveling through Taiwan Strait, (IV) the direction of westward movement traveling through Luzon Strait, (V) the direction of westward movement traveling through the southern East China Sea (near northern Taiwan), and (VI) the irregular track direction. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) were used as the forecasting technique for predicting the wind velocity. A total of 49 typhoons from 2000 to 2012 were analyzed. Results showed that the ANFIS models provided high-reliability predictions for wind velocity, and the ANFIS achieved more favorable performance than did the MLPNN. In addition, a detailed discussion on the interaction of the CMR with the Penghu Islands based on various track directions is provided. For class I, the CMR is observed to have significantly influenced variations in wind speed when typhoons approached the Penghu Islands. In addition, the winds on the Penghu Islands were observed to have been influenced by the distance from the typhoon center to the Penghu Islands for all classes except class II.
Relation: 29(6)
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/40148
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 期刊論文

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
index.html0KbHTML58View/Open


All items in NTOUR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.

 


著作權政策宣告: 本網站之內容為國立臺灣海洋大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,請合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。
網站維護: 海大圖資處 圖書系統組
DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback