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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/40122

Title: Rainfall-runoff prediction using dynamic typhoon information and surface weather characteristics considering monsoon effects
Authors: Chih-Chiang Wei
Nien-Sheng Hsu
Chien-Lin Huang
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊學系
Keywords: Typhoon
Rainfall-runoff
Monsoon effect
Prediction
Date: 2016-01
Issue Date: 2017-01-16
Publisher: Water Resources Management
Abstract: Abstract: In meteorology and engineering, the prediction of quantitative precipitation and streamflow during typhoon events is a vital research topic. In Southern Taiwan, typhoons often occur in the summer. The interaction between the typhoon circulation and southwesterly monsoon flow frequently transports abundant moisture into Southern Taiwan leading to the substantial pouring rains. This study proposes a rainfall-runoff prediction methodology for addressing the complicated inflow forecasts of southwest monsoon rainfall during typhoons in the upper Tsengwen River in Southern Taiwan. This paper is novel in that it incorporates various data types (reservoir inflows, watershed rainfalls, typhoon information, and ground-weather characteristics) that were applied as model inputs. The most frequently used support vector regressions were employed to construct the rainfall-runoff models on the basis of three designed data combination scenarios. Typhoons Kalmaegi (2008), Fung-wong (2008), Jangmi (2008), and Morakot (2009) were used as validation typhoons. The model cases, involving lead times of 1 h to 6 h, were evaluated. Six performance criteria were used in the three scenarios to highlight the scenario capable of identifying the optimal performance level. In addition, this study compared the error rates between accumulation observations and accumulation predictions. The results showed that Scenario 3, which considered typhoon information and ground-weather characteristics simultaneously, had superior watershed rainfall and runoff predictions to those of the other scenarios. Thus, this study demonstrated the feasibility of using the proposed methodology to increase the accuracy of rainfall-runoff predictions.
Relation: 30(2)
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/40122
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 期刊論文

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