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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/39837

Title: 異常波浪發生機率預測研究
Study of prediction of occurrence probability of freak wave
Authors: 曾薐璇
董東璟
高家俊
蔡政翰
Cheng-Han Tsai
Dong-Jiing Doong
Leng-Hsuan Tseng
Chia Chuen Kao
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊學系
Keywords: 非線性波場
異常波浪
發生機率
Nonlinear wave field
Freak wave
Occurrence probability
Date: 2013-11
Issue Date: 2017-01-04T06:10:53Z
Publisher: 第 35 屆海洋工程研討會論文集
Abstract: 異常波浪係近年熱門的議題之一,主要原因在於它的不可預測性及發生機制之不確定性。異常波浪屬於極端波浪的一種,由於對其了解仍然有限,因此定率的預測尚不可行,然而序率之討論則是目前可行的方法,因此本文引用了前人所提出之異常波浪發生機率理論,根據該理論可以得知異常波浪的發生機率和觀測的波浪個數以及水位峰度相關,且在非線性的條件下,異常波浪的發生機率能達線性理論下的四倍以上。本文希望藉由實測資料對理論之驗證能增進對此理論之了解,因此本文利用了連續且長期觀測於基隆碧砂漁港之波高資料進行理論之驗證,並發現部分偏差的存在,本文認為進一步的修正有其必要性。本文主要利用實測資料進行波高與水位均方根值比值之修正,同時也利用了實測資料驗證,驗證結果顯示修正後理論式與實測資料計算出的發生機率更為接近,因此認為此修正式能提供更加之機率估算結果,期望能提供將來在異常波浪機率預測上更準確的結果。

Abstract: Freak wave has become one of the most popular issues these years mostly because of its unpredictable and uncertainty of its mechanism. It is also one kind of extreme waves and its nonlinearity was considered to affect the statistical characteristic of surface wave and then make the probability distribution of wave height different from linear theory result. Since the mechanism is still unclear, only stochastic method for estimate occurrence probability of freak wave is workable. This study tried to use field measurement data for theory validation and modification and figure out better estimation method for freak wave probability. The result indicates that the modified former fits better with field data than the original one, which may provide more accurate results.
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/39837
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 演講及研討會

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