National Taiwan Ocean University Institutional Repository:Item 987654321/39698
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 28603/40634
造访人次 : 4338920      在线人数 : 207
RC Version 4.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 进阶搜寻

jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/39698

题名: A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk
作者: Min-Pei Ling
Chung-Min Liao
Yi-Hsien Cheng
Yi-Jun Lin
Nan-Hung Hsieh
Tang-Luen Huang
Chia-Pin Chio
Szu-Chieh Chen
贡献者: 國立臺灣海洋大學:食品科學系
关键词: tuberculosis
Population dynamics
probabilistic
risk
transmission
日期: 2012-08
上传时间: 2016-12-28T03:54:56Z
出版者: Risk Analysis
摘要: Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well-established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site-specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53-67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32-47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age-weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25-27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36-66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan-based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality.
關聯: 32(8)
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/39698
显示于类别:[食品科學系] 期刊論文

文件中的档案:

档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
index.html0KbHTML52检视/开启


在NTOUR中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

 


著作權政策宣告: 本網站之內容為國立臺灣海洋大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,請合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。
網站維護: 海大圖資處 圖書系統組
DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈