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Baseline Forecasting for Taiwan's Population in the Face of Low Fertility Rate and Ageing Problems
Low fertility rate；Population ageing ；Dynamic computable general equilibrium model ；Population forecasting
|Issue Date: ||2016-10-21T05:54:17Z
Abstract:Over the past few decades, the population growth of Taiwan has been de- creasing, particularly with the increasing situations of late-marriage, no-marriage, late-childbearing, few-childbearing and even no-childbearing ever since the 1980s. The low fertility rate and ageing population have put demographic policies as the top of the agenda for Taiwan's sustainable economic growth. In this study, we use the GEMTEE model-a computable general equilibrium model with both investment and demographic dynamics-to provide baseline forecasting for Taiwan's population and investigate its potential economic impacts. We also compare our results with predictions from Council of Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) where Cohort-Component Method (CCM) is used and all economic factors are set exogenously. Other things being equal, our results show that Taiwan's population will decrease to 14.79million in 2060. Such a result is more severe than that predicted by CEPD. Interdependency and feed- backs between demographic transition and economic factors, especially the labor force declining and income growth, bring into focus the importance of the problems of low fertility rate and ageing population in Taiwan.
|Relation: ||46(1), pp.113-156|
|Appears in Collections:||[應用經濟研究所] 期刊論文|
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