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|Keywords: ||定期航線;系統模擬;ARENA;隨機變數;liner service;systematic simulation;ARENA;stochastic variable|
|Issue Date: ||2016-04-08T01:53:06Z
Abstract:In calculating the actual running costs and revenues for service loops, liner shipping company must wait the provision of related data reported from its worldwide branches and agents. The whole transmission process till ready for audition normally spends much time. Thus, the headquarters preliminarily estimates the profits for every service by means of the standard cost bases and the rough revenues extracted from the lading system. The exactness and effectiveness of this approach require improving. Based on the interviews with the studied company, a procedure of systematic simulation for the route operations as the practical scheme is constructed. Meanwhile, the commercial package-ARENA is employed to match the optimal distributed functions of stochastic variables relative to the route management with the historical data of an Asia-Europe loop and then to conduct the simulation. Simulated results in comparisons with the real profits of the company reveal that this model can obtain the performance as the practical system within 95% of confidence interval. Moreover, three main influencing groups, i.e. ship, business and port factors, are also analyzed in detail. The findings of this research indicate that the systematic simulation is a helpful tool for managers to understand the service characteristics in container shipping. It can be applied not only to the estimation of the operational profit but also to being the reference in adjusting service policies.
|Relation: ||20(4),P523 - 537|
|Appears in Collections:||[航運管理學系] 期刊論文|
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