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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/37163

Title: 散裝航運公司購置二手船之決策分析
Analyzing Secondhand Ship-Purchasing Decisions in Bulk Shipping Corporations
Authors: 鍾政棋;林哲毅
Cheng-Chi Chung;Che-Yi Lin
Contributors: 國立臺灣海洋大學: 航運管理學系
Keywords: 散裝航運;二手船;投資決策;逐步迴歸;複迴歸
Bulk shipping;Secondhand vessel;Investment decision;Stepwise Regression;Multiple-regression
Date: 2009-06-11
Issue Date: 2016-01-08T08:18:37Z
Publisher: 2009 年海峽兩岸創新與永續經營學術研討會 暨 2009 管理創新與科際整合學術研討會
Abstract: 摘要:航運相關產業中,近年以散裝航運市場之變化最具挑戰性。由於二手船價格波動劇烈,導致購船決策難度大幅提高。我國散裝航運公司船舶載重噸大部分規模較小,每次購船決策對未來營運將產生深遠影響。基於散裝航運公司立場,本文進行購置二手船投資決策之分析。由於購置散裝二手船舶各船型所需考慮之影響因素不同,又未有一套較完整之評估工具,使散裝航運公司暴露於極大風險中。因此,本文利用Clarkson過去十二年(1997年1月至2008年12月)相關變數之月資料,採用ADF單根檢定法、逐步迴歸法及複迴歸法,分析二手船購船決策,在散裝海岬型、巴拿馬極限型、超輕便極限型船、輕便型船等四種不同船型之變化。研究結果可以作為購置二手船投資決策之參考。
Abstract:In recent years, among shipping related industries, the variation of bulk shipping market has been the most challenging. Additionally, the price volatility of second-hand vessels has accelerated the difficulty in making purchasing decisions. In Taiwan, most bulk shipping corporations own small-scale ship deadweight tonnages only; therefore, each ship purchasing decision would have deep and far influence on the corporations. Implementing this research on the basis of bulk shipping corporations, we plan to evaluate purchasing decisions of secondhand vessels. Because of the discrepancy in the influence factors and the lack of an integral evaluation criterion for making purchasing decisions, bulk shipping corporations are exposed to considerable risks. For this reason, in order to discuss the secondhand price (SP) and the variations in Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize as a reference for vessel purchasing decision-making, we not only adopt the related variables of the last decade (January 1997 to December 2008) from Clarkson but also apply the methods of ADF Test, Stepwise Regression and Multiple Regression. The findings in this research can serve as a good reference in making ship purchasing decisions for bulk shipping corporations.
Relation: pp.1-14
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/37163
Appears in Collections:[航運管理學系] 演講及研討會

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