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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/36188

Title: 臺灣與韓國發展海洋能源之經濟評估 以離岸風力產業為例
An Economic Evaluation of Ocean Energy Development between Taiwan and South Korea: Offshore Wind Industry
Authors: Yu-Chieh Chang
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
Keywords: 離岸風力發電;海洋能源;可計算一般均衡模型;全球貿易分析模型
Offshore Wind Eletricity;Ocean Energy;Computable General Equilibrium;GTAP
Date: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-10-07T03:04:29Z
Abstract: 全球超過60%以上的溫室氣體排放來自能源供需,因此減少對化石能源的依賴,被視為對抗氣候變遷的關鍵,以再生能源革命創造綠色經濟並促進永續成長已成為全球共識;海洋蘊藏大量能量,故海洋能源成為各國發展再生能源的主要選擇。臺灣四面環海且具有離岸風場的稟賦優勢,適合發展此類型產業,可藉此帶動經濟成長。可計算一般均衡模型(CGE)適合評估具有能源替代下新興產業發展之可能性與其對總體經濟之影響,故本文將以全球可計算一般均衡模型之GTAP模型與產業結構相似且為我國在國際貿易市場上主要之競爭對手韓國,進行臺韓兩國在離岸風力發電產業之跨國比較,以及分析離岸風力發電相關產業之國際競爭力,藉以作為政府進行相關政策或投資研發之參考,冀望對我國發展離岸風力發電等再生能源時提供更適合的選擇。 本研究結果發現,發展離岸風力發電產業並投入技術研發,將帶動臺灣實質國內生產毛額成長幅度為韓國的1.03倍,顯示此新興產業在臺灣具有較韓國更佳的發展條件與潛能;臺灣電力部門產值成長幅度為韓國的6.40倍以上;若臺灣投入相關研究與發展離岸風力發電產業不但可以平抑電價上漲,同時可穩定臺灣之總體物價水準,故我國更應該持續努力並積極投入發展離岸風力發電產業,將可促進經濟發展並提升國際競爭力。 再者,設定臺灣與韓國在相同的競爭基礎之下,針對離岸風力發電產業相關之上下游主要關鍵零組件產業之技術進步,觀察相關產業對於離岸風力發電產業之敏感度分析與產業之相對國際競爭能力;由結果發現臺灣之非金屬礦物製品產業、金屬製品產業、營造工程產業、保險產業及工商服務產業是具有國際競爭力並可有效帶動國內產業鏈之整體發展,且提高臺灣國內生產毛額,因此可積極投入上述五項產業之發展。 針對臺灣現行之「風力發電離岸系統示範獎勵辦法」政策目標進行評估;在經濟部針對離岸風力發電產業之風場開發獎金與風力機組設置補助金之「雙重補助」下,若政府預計於2030年達成政策目標3000MW之離岸風電裝置容量,預計政府將在2015年至2030年間需投入約4兆新台幣,政府每年將補助約占中央政府賦稅實徵淨額平均之24.9%。成功發展離岸風力發電市場,政府的大力支持仍然是關鍵因素,故政府在制定相關發展目標時,應提供更加完善的配套補助辦法,此外,相關之再生能源政策之推行,未來將有賴國民及民間企業之共同支持與投入,創造永續的經濟與環境。
As one of the main reasons behind the increase in global warming is burning fossil fuels, which accounts for over 60% of greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy has gained worldwide recognition as an alternative source of energy to reduce human reliance on fossil fuels. Taiwan is surrounded by the sea and has its endowment of offshore wind farm, leading advantages for developing offshore wind power industry. The CGE models are a class of economic models that use actual economic data to estimate how new industries might react to changes in policy, technology or other external factors in macroeconomics. To identify future opportunities and potential challenges for investment in developing offshore wind industry in Taiwan, this study conducts an economic evaluation of ocean energy development between Taiwan and South Korea with a specific focus on offshore wind industry, using the GTAP model, a multiregion, multisector, computable general equilibrium model, with perfect competition and constant returns to scale. The results of the study reveal that by developing offshore wind power industry, the growth rate in Taiwan’s GDP will be 1.03 times greater than that of Korea, indicating that Taiwan has better conditions and more potential to develop offshore wind power industry than Korea does. Furthermore, the growth rate of output value of Taiwan’s electricity sector will be 6.40 times higher than that of Korea’s electricity sector, suggesting that the development of offshore wind power industry will stabilize not only electricity price but also the overall price level in Taiwan. To sum up, Taiwan’s government should continue their efforts and activities involved in developing offshore wind power industry to promoting Taiwan’s economic growth and elevating its global economic status. In addition, based on the same competition level between Taiwan and Korea and focused on the improvement of offshore wind power related industries, the results of the study indicate that Taiwanese can focus on developing the following five industries to promote the overall development of the domestic industry chain effectively, which are: mineral products industry, metal products industry, construction industry, insurance industry, and business services industry. To reach the government goal of offshore 3000MW by year 2030, government provides subsidy for both equipment and developing processes of offshore wind power. The government is expected to invest 4 trillion Taiwan dollars, quarter of the total government subsidy in offshore wind power development from year 2015 to year 2030. In conclusion, in addition to environmental conditions, a successful renewable power development relies on the support of government, private enterprises and individuals. To protect the earth we live in, we should all do our part to ensure that our environment stays sustainable not just for ourselves but for the future generations to come.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0010035014
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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