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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/36184

Title: 台灣運輸模式轉變對所得與就業效果之影響
The income and employment effects of change on transportation mode in Taiwan
Authors: 龐秀芬
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: 運輸模式轉變;所得效果;就業效果;產出效果
the change on transportation mode;income effect;employment effect;output effect
Date: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-10-07T03:04:27Z
Abstract: 在人類文明發展的過程中,為了追求更有效率的運輸方式,至今發展出許多先進的交通運輸工具,雖然目前世界所擁有的運輸系統堪稱完備,但還是不免存在一些瓶頸。在台灣的公路上,時常發生道路擁擠、車滿為患的情況,因而造成許多用路人的不便。故為解決此一問題,政府較傾向於改變國人的運輸模式,使人民的運輸習慣由公路運輸轉向軌道運輸等大眾運輸工具,或是發展「藍色公路」。然而,運輸模式改變會對台灣的經濟體系產生甚麼樣的影響呢?在過去運輸相關文獻中,皆只探討到運輸系統本身的產業關聯效果、產量效果、就業效果及所得效果,因此本文想藉由模擬運輸模式改變,即是將9%的公路運輸移轉至軌道運輸、將1%的公路運輸移轉至水上運輸。本文使用投入產出分析法評估運輸模式改變後,對於台灣國民所得、就業機會與產業產量的影響。實證結果如下:首先,於所得及就業效果增加最多的產業部門為石油及煤製品業,其所得效果增加0.200913、就業效果增加0.179709,其次為水上運輸業,其所得效果增加0.105721、就業效果增加0.071883;其次,於產量效果增加最多的產業為郵政快遞服務與倉儲業,其產量效果分別增加0.043009、0.033887。最後,運輸模式改變將可使整體產業部門之所得效果增加1.292026、就業效果增加0.907222、產量效果增加0.705716,故運輸模式改變可促進台灣經濟發展。
In the process of the development of human civilization, in order to pursue a more efficient mode of transportation, it has developed many advanced transportation. Although the transportation equipment of the world is nearly complete, there are still some problems about transportation. The existing transportation problems mainly become more congestion in road. These are policy issues getting more attention when the government will incline to change transportation mode, such as shift mode from road to rail, and develop the so-called “blue highway”. What’s the effect of change on transportation mode in Taiwan’s economic? In the past of research was only focus on the transportation’s interindustrial linkage effect, output effect, employment effect and income effect. Thus, we attempt to simulation the change on transportation mode. We use scenario as transfer of 9% of road to rail and of 1% of road to water transportation. This paper applied input-output model to evaluate the effect of income, employment and output after change on transportation mode in Taiwan. The empirical results are as follows: Firstly, the largest increase in income and employment effects of the industrial sector is the petroleum and coal product (increase 0.200913 in income effect and 0.179709 in employment effect). The second highest increase is the water transportation industry (increase 0.105721 in income effect and 0.071883 in employment effect). Secondly, the largest increase in output effect of the industrial sector is postal and express delivery (increase 0.043009 in output effect). The second highest increase is warehousing (increase 0.0338879 in output effect). Finally, the change on transportation mode will increase 1292026 in income effect, 0.907222 in employment effect and 0.7057160 in output effect. Therefore, the change on transportation mode can promote the development of economic in Taiwan.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0010035013
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/36184
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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