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Title: 臺灣海運公司在全球海運市場之營運效率分析
The Efficiency Measurement of Taiwan Shipping Company in Global Maritime Market
Authors: 古靖甜
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: 海運公司;資料包絡法;隨機邊界法;Tobit迴歸模型;經營績效;市場效率
Shipping company;DEA;SFA;Tobit Regression Model;Operating performance efficiency;Market efficiency
Date: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-10-07T03:04:26Z
Abstract: 聯合國貿易暨發展委員會指出全球國際貿易高達80%在海上進行,亦指全球進出口貿易運輸主要以海上運輸為主,也表示海運產業在國際貿易間扮演重要的角色。臺灣的進出口貿易,則高達99%為海上運輸,亦可知海運產業對臺灣本身的重要性。在國際貨櫃化運輸雜誌(Containersiation International)所公布全球前25大貨櫃航運公司排名,其中有3家為臺灣海運公司;分別為長榮、陽明及萬海,在2012年的排名為6、16、21,顯示臺灣海運公司在全球海運市場具有相當的競爭力。在競爭激烈的海運市場,其效率就成為各海運公司經營上的重要課題。 海運公司的績效可分為二部份,分別是經營績效與市場效率,經營績效為海運公司應用生產的投入與產出,追求成本極小、企業規模最大化、企業成長速度最大化與市占最大化等,以達到利潤極大的經營績效。市場效率是指海運公司之表現反映在股票價格上,以提供投資者瞭解海運公司與其股票價格之關係。而海運公司增加資金的來源則是習慣透過股票市場(Panayideset al.(2011)),企業著重於股票的原因是能夠獲得邊際利益與維持競爭優勢(Dinget al.(2011))。本研究使用兩種衡量績效的方法,分別為無參數法的資料包絡法(DEA;Data Envelopment analysis)及參數法的隨機邊界法(SFA;Stochastic Frontier Analysis),以評估臺灣整體海運公司之市場效率與經營效率,另因效率值介於0至1之間,將採用Tobit迴歸模型探討影響各效率的原因。 綜合上述內容,本研究為產出導向DEA與SFA對22家全球領導型海運公司與11家臺灣海運公司,為33家海運公司,4年資料,共128筆資料,進行效率的評估,再進一步運用Tobit迴歸模型探討影響各效率的因子。所採用之資料為Datastream 4.0資料庫之2008年至2011年公司會計報表、公司利潤資料與公司現金流量資料,採用之產出變數為在公司經營績效為銷售,在市場效率為公司市值;投入變數在公司經營績效為1.總資產2.資產支出3.人事資本4.機器設備;在市場效率為1.營運利潤2.股票帳面價值。 實證結果顯示: (一)經營績效效率值 1.在DEA共同邊界之假設下,2008年至2011年公司經營績效中達到完全純粹技術效率者有21個為11家海運公司,其中臺灣海運公司就佔了3家,分別為:長榮、臺灣航業、東森國際。純粹技術效率總平均值0.486,在2008至2011年分別為0.513、0.492、0.482及0.456。臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.488,在2008至2011年分別為0.528、0.492、0.476及0.454。顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是略高於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,在2008年與2009年臺灣臺灣海運公司是高於整體33家海運公司;在2010年與2011年臺灣臺灣海運公司是略低於整體33家海運公司。 2.在DEA年邊界之假設下,2008年至2011年公司經營績效中達到完全純粹技術效率者有36個為12家海運公司,其中臺灣海運公司就佔了4家,分別為:長榮、益航、臺灣航業、東森國際。純粹技術效率總平均值0.574,在2008至2011年分別為0.625、0.529、0.559及2011年0.584。臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.577,2008至2011年分別為0.656、0.562、0.544及0.544,顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是略高於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,在2008年與2009年臺灣臺灣海運公司是略高於整體33家海運公司;在2010年與2011年臺灣臺灣海運公司是略低於整體33家海運公司。 3.在SFA在共同邊界之技術效率總平均0.642;在2008至2011年分別為0.652、0.630、0.654及0.632,臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.570,2008至2011年分別為0.557、0.535、0.589及0.599。顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是低於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,臺灣11家海運公司也皆低於整體33家海運公司。 4.在SFA在年邊界之技術效率總平均值0.615,在2008至2011年分別為0.736、0.630、0.619、0.474,臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.412,在2008至2011年分別為0.652、0.212、0.449及0.333。顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是低於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,臺灣11家海運公司也皆低於整體33家海運公司,尤其在2009年與2010年最為明顯,表示臺灣海運公司在產出與投入的配置上有頗大的改善空間。 (二) 市場效率值 1.在DEA共同邊界之假設下,2008年至2011年公司市場績效達到完全純粹技術效率者有4個為4家海運公司。整體純粹技術效率總平均值0.073,在2008至2011年分別為0.036、0.072、0.121及0.063,臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.017,2008年至2011年分別為0.014、0.017、0.023及0.015。顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是明顯低於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,臺灣11家海運公司也皆明顯低於整體33家海運公司,在2009年至2011年最為明顯,表示臺灣海運公司在產出與投入的配置上有頗大的改善空間。 2.在DEA年邊界之假設下,2008年至2011年市場效率中達到完全純粹技術效率者有21個為10家海運公司,其中臺灣海運公司佔有1家為東森國際。純粹技術效率總平均值0.348,2008年至2011年分別為0.378、0.293、0.352及0.369,臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.295,2008年至2011年分別為0.327、0.239、0.419及0.194。顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是略低於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,在2010年臺灣臺灣海運公司是略高於整體33家海運公司;在2008年、2009年臺灣臺灣海運公司是略低於整體33家海運公司;在2011年臺灣臺灣海運公司則明顯低於整體33家海運公司。 3. SFA在共同邊界之技術效率總平均值0.683,2008年至2011年分別為0.695、0.664、0.709、0.664,臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.654,2008年至2011年分別為0.665、0.637、0.671、0.644。顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是略低於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,臺灣11家海運公司也皆略低於整體33家海運公司。 4. SFA在年邊界之純粹技術效率總平均值0.735,2008年至2011年分別為0.765、0.676、0.701、0.799,臺灣海運公司的總平均值0.597;2008年至2011年分別為0.770、0.294、0.688及0.636。顯示:在總平均值的部份,臺灣11家海運公司是明顯低於整體33家海運公司的。就各年度平均值,臺灣11家海運公司也皆明顯低於整體33家海運公司,在2010年最為明顯,表示臺灣海運公司在產出與投入的配置上有頗大的改善空間。 (三) DEA與SFA估計效率值的Spearman相關係數 1.公司經營績效:DEA與SFA在共同邊界下,2008年至2011年兩種方法估計效率值的相關係數分別為0.3984、0.3103、0.4067及0.3278。在年邊界下,各年相關係數分別為0.2565、0.5446、0.2662、0.6296。顯示:在共同邊界的假設下,DEA與SFA在2008年至2011年33家海運公司技術效率值的排序上,為30%左右是相同的;在年邊界的假設下,DEA與SFA在2008年至2011年33家海運公司技術效率值的排序上,在2008年與2010年為25%左右是相同的,2009年與2011年則上升至55%與60%左右是相同的。 2.市場效率:DEA與SFA在共同邊界下,2008年至2011年兩方法估計效率值的相關係數分別為0.7031、0.2256、0.8511及0.3673。各年相關係數分別為0.1359、0.2771、-0.2532、0.6475。顯示:在共同邊界的假設下,DEA與SFA在2008年至2011年33家海運公司技術效率值的排序上,在2008年與2011年為高達70%與85%是相同的,在2009年與2010年則只有20%與35%左右是相同的;在年邊界的假設下,DEA與SFA在2008年至2011年33家海運公司技術效率值的排序上,在2011年為65%左右是相同的,在2008年與2009年為13%與25%左右是相同的,在2010年則為完全不同的排序。 (四)Tobit迴歸模型估計值 1.在共同邊界DEA模型估計之公司經營績效的影響因子中,以行政管理支出與公司年齡對效率值是正向的影響,船舶數量對效率值是負向的影響,油輪與散裝型態相較於貨櫃型態則是較好的效率表現,2009年至2011年之效率值皆低於2008年之水準,表示2008年底金融海嘯的發生,對2009年至2011年是有影響的。在市場效率的影響因子上,EBITDA/收入之比例對效率值是負向影響,公司年齡對效率值是正向影響,油輪與散裝則是低於貨櫃型態。而2009年至2011年之效率值則是高於2008年的,其表示2008年底發生的金融海嘯對2009至2011年DEA之市場效率並沒有顯著影響。 2.以共同邊界SFA模型估計之公司經營績效的影響因子中,行政管理支出與船舶數量對效率值則有正向影響;公司年齡對效率值為不顯著負向影響。油輪與散裝型態之效率值則是低於貨櫃型態之效率。2009年至2011年之效率值皆低於2008年的水準,表示2008年底發生的金融海嘯對2009年至2011年是有影響的。市場效率的影響因子中,EBITDA/收入之比例與公司年齡對效率值有正向影響,油輪與散裝型態之效率值則高於貨櫃型態之效率值。2009年與2011年之效率值則是低於2008年之水準;2010年之效率值則是高於2008年之水準但不顯著,表示2009年與2011年應有受到2008年發生之金融海嘯影響。 綜合上述(一)至(四)點,可歸納如下: 1.臺灣11家海運公司在公司經營績效與市場效率之效率總平均值皆低於0.7,在公司營經績效之效率值有逐年遞減的情形,在市場效率則是在整體 33家海運公司的名次有下滑的現象從第5、6名下滑至第10名,顯示臺灣海運公司在公司經營績效與市場效率仍有很大的改善空間。 2. 2008年底發生的金融海嘯,對海運公司所帶來的影響與變動,Tobit迴歸結果亦顯示市場效率確實有受到金融海嘯的影響;公司經營績效則受金融海嘯的影響程度較低。 3.本研究應用DEA與SFA兩種方法估計效率值,SFA實證結果顯示sigma-squared(σ2)與gamma(γ)為顯著,表示有技術無效率(Ui)之效果存在與SFA技術效率值較容易瞭解,所以本研究應用SFA方法估計效率會較DEA好。
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indicated that the percentage of global international trade is approximately 80% on the sea, It also shows that the maritime industry play an important role in the international trade. The percentage of trade of import and export for maritime transportation in Taiwan is approximately 99%, it means that the shipping industry is therefore important in Taiwan. Containerization International has provided information about the rank of top twenty-five container shipping company in the word recently, which indicate that there are three Taiwanese companies in this rank. What the three Taiwanese companies for this top rank is Everg- reen Marine Corporation (with 6 in this ranking), Yang-Ming Marine (with 16 in this ra- nking) and Wan-Hai Marine (with 21 in this ranking) in 2012 respectively. Therefore, the competition for these three companies is apparently high in maritime market in the world. In this market, efficiency is the one of the most crucial issue for shipping comp- anies. There are two parts for efficiency of marine companies, one isoperating performa- nce efficiency and other is market efficiency. Operating performance efficiency is defin- ed by product’s inputs and outputs in shipping company application such as minimum cost, maximum profit, businesses’ scale, maximum market share and achieve to maxim- um profit and so on. The performance of market efficiency is mirrored on the equity market, which shows the relationship between shipping companies and stock price. Market efficiency is the propensity of shipping companies to raise finance through the equity market (Panayides et al.2011),and it’s the main source of gaining margins of pr- ofit and keeping competitive advantage for business(Ding et al.2011). This paper focus ontwo methods, which is non-parametric measure ofData Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and parameter measure of Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), to estimate operating performance efficiency and market efficiency of all shipping companies in Taiwan. However, in order to describe the observable variable which is defined to be equal to the latent variable whenever the latent variable is above zero and one, we use Tobit model to fit this problem. Following, this study use output-oriented of DEA and SFA to estimate efficiency of 22 leader shipping companies in the world and of 11 shipping companies in Taiwan. The observation of totally number of shipping companies is 33, which across for four-year period data and including 128 documents. Then, using Tobit model discuss the factors of efficiency. The data is collected from companies’ accounting statement, companies’ profit and companies’ cash flow between 2008 and 2011 by Datastream 4.0. The output variable at operating performance efficiency is sales, and the output variable atmarket efficiency is market value. The input variables at operating performance effi- ciency are total assets, capital expenditure, total capital employed, property, plant and equipment respectively, and the input variables at market efficiency are operating profit and book value (per share). The empirical results show: (1)Efficiency value of operating performance 1. In common frontiers of DEA, there are 21 pure technical efficiency values in 11 ship- ping companies from 2008 to 2011 to achieve complete pure technical efficiency at operating performance efficiency. In 11 shipping companies, there are 3 shipping co- mpanies in Taiwan. The companies areEvergreen, Taiwan Navigation and Eastern Media respectively. Thetotal average value of pure technical efficiency is 0.486, 0.513, 0.492, 0.482 and 0.456 from 2008 to 2011 respectively.The Total average value of pure technical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.488, 0.528, 0.492, 0.476 and 0.454 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. It shows that the total average value of pure technical efficiency for the 11 shipping companies in Taiwan are just a little bit higher than ot- her in the 33 shipping companies. For each year, the part of average value in 2008 and 2009 for pure technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are higher than pure technical efficiency in the total 33 shipping companies. Pure technical effic- iency of shipping companies in Taiwan are lower than pure technical efficiency in the 33 shipping companies in 2010 and 2011. 2. In the year of frontiers DEA, there are 36 technical efficiency values in 12 shipping companies to achieve complete pure technical efficiency at operating performance efficiency from 2008 to 2011. In 12 shipping companies, there are 4 shipping companies in Taiwan. These 4 shipping companies areEvergreen, First Steamship, Taiwan Navigation and Eastern Media respectively. The total average value of pure technical efficiency is 0.574, 0.625, 0.529, 0.559 and 0.584 from 2008 to 2011 resp- ectively. The total average value of pure technical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.577, 0.656, 0.562, 0.544 and 0.544 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. It shows that the total average value of pure technical efficiency for these 11 shipping companies in Taiwan are higher than total 33 shipping companies. For each year, the part of average value in 2008 and 2009 for pure technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are higher than pure technical efficiency in the 33 shipping companies. Pure technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are lower than pure technical efficiency in the 33 shipping companies between 2010 and 2011. 3. In common frontiers of SFA,the total average value of technical efficiency is 0.642, 0.652, 0.630, 0.654 and 0.632 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. The total average va- lue of technical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.570, 0.557, 0.535, 0.589 and 0.599 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. It shows that the total average value of technical efficiency for these 11 Taiwanese shipping companies are lower than the total 33 shipping com- panies. Also, in each year, the part of average value for Taiwanese shipping compan- ies from 2008 to 2011 are lower then the total 33 shipping companies. 4. In year frontiers of SFA, the total average value of technical efficiency is 0.615,0.736, 0.630, 0.619 and 0.474 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. The total average value of technical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.412, 0.652, 0.212, 0.449 and 0.333 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. It shows that the total average value of technical efficiency for the 11 shipping companies in Taiwan are lower than the total 33 shipping companies. For each year, the part of average value for Taiwanese shipping companies’ technical effi- ciency from 2008 to 2011 are lower than the total 33 shipping companies. In particul- arly, it is clear to see that the industry of marine in Taiwan has improved obviously on the distribution of output and input since 2009. (2)Efficiency value of market efficiency 1. In common frontiers of DEA, there are 4 pure technical efficiency values in 4 ship- ping companies to achieve complete pure technical efficiency at market efficiency from 2008 to 2011. The total average value of pure technical efficiency is 0.073, 0.036, 0.072, 0.121 and 0.063 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. The total average val- ue of pure technical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.017, 0.014, 0.017, 0.023 and 0.015 fr- om 2008 to 2011 respectively. It shows that the total average value of pure technical efficiency for these 11 shipping companies in Taiwan are apparently lower than the 33 shipping companies. For each year, the part of average value on pure technical efficiency for Taiwanese shipping companies are also obvious lower than pure techn- ical efficiency of the total 33 shipping companies from 2008 to 2011. In particularly, it is clear to see that the shipping companies in Taiwan haveimproved the space on the distribution of input and output since 2009. 2. In the year of frontiers DEA, there are 21 technical efficiency values in 10 shipping companies from 2008 to 2011 to achieve complete pure technical efficiency at market efficiency. In these 10 shipping companies, Taiwanese Eastern Media is the one of th- ese 10 companies. In Total average value of pure technical efficiency is 0.348, 0.378, 0.293, 0.352 and 0.369 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. Total average value of pure technical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.295, 0.327, 0.239, 0.419 and 0.194 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. In the total average value of pure technical efficiency, the 11 ship- ping companies in Taiwan are lower than total 33 shipping companies. For each year, the part of average value in 2010, pure technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are higher than pure technical efficiency of the total 33 shipping companies. Pure technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are lower than pure tech- nical efficiency of the total 33 shipping companies in 2008 and 2009. Pure technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are significantly lower than pure techni- cal efficiency of the total 33 shipping companies in 2010. 3.In common frontiers of SFA, the total average value of technical efficiency is 0.683, 0.695, 0.664, 0.709 and 0.664 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. The total average val- ue of technical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.654, 0.665, 0.637, 0.671 and 0.644 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. In the total average value of technical efficiency, the 11 shipping companies in Taiwan are lower than the total 33 shipping companies. The part of average value from 2008 to 2011, technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are lower than the technical efficiency of the total 33 shipping companies. 4.In year frontiers of SFA, the total average value of technical efficiency is 0.735, 0.765, 0.676, 0.701 and 0.799 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. The total average value of te- chnical efficiency in Taiwan is 0.597, 0.770, 0.294, 0.688 and 0.636 from 2008 to 2011 respectively. In the total average value of technical efficiency, the 11 shipping companies in Taiwan are apparently lower then total 33 shipping companies. The part of average value from 2008 to 2011, technical efficiency of shipping companies in Taiwan are also obviously lower than the total 33 shipping companies. Particularly, it’s clear to see that the shipping companies in Taiwan have improved the space on the distribution of input and output factor since 2010. (3)The efficiency value of Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient estimated by DEA and SFA 1. Operating performance efficiency:On common frontiers of DEA and SFA, the Spea- rman's rank correlation coefficients of efficiency value from 2008 to 2011 was esti- mated with 0.3984, 0.3103, 0.4067 and 0.3278 respectively by DEA and SFA.On the year offrontiers DEA and SFA, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients from 2008 to 2011 is 0.2565, 0.5446, 0.2662 and 0.6296 respectively.On the assumption of com- mon frontiers, it shows that the two technical efficiency of 33 shipping companies from 2008 to 2011 was estimated by DEA and SFA, which provided the same rank about 30%.Onthe assumption of year frontiers, the two technical efficiency of 33 sh- ipping companies from 2008 to 2010 was estimated by DEA and SFA, which showed the same rank with 25% and 55% in 2009 and 60% in 2011. 2.Market efficiency:On common frontiers of DEA and SFA, the Spearman's rank cor- relation coefficients of efficiency value from 2008 to 2011was estimated with 0.7031, 0.2256, 0.8511 and 0.3673 respectively by DEA and SFA.In the year of frontier DEA and SFA, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for each year are 0.1359, 0.2771, -0.2532 and 0.6475 respectively. The assumption of common frontiers show that the technical efficiency values of 33 shipping companies was estimated by DEA and SFA, which have the same Spearman's rank with 70%in 2007,85%in 2011,20% in 2009 and 35 in 2010.On the assumption of the year fronti- ers, the technical efficiency va- lues of 33 shipping companies estimated by DEA and SFA, which have the same Sp- earman's rank about70%in 2011,13% in 2008, 25% in 2009 and the different Spear- man's rank in 2010. (4)Tobit Regression Model results 1. Factor of operating performance efficiency in common frontiers of DEA, Selling, Ge- neral & Administrative Expense and company age are positive effect on efficiency value. Amount of ship is positive effect on efficiency value. The performance ofeffi- ciency for oil tanker and dry bluk are better than container. Efficiency values from 2009 to 2011 are lower than the level in 2008, it means that the financial tsunami oc- cur in the end of 2008 has no effect in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Factors of market effic- iency, ratio of earnings before Interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization/revenue are positive effect to efficiency value. Companies’ age is positive effect to efficiency value. Efficiency performance of oil tanker and dry bluk are the worst. Efficiency va- lues from 2009 to 2011 are higher than the level of 2008, it means that the financial tsunami occur in end of 2008 has no effect in 2009, 2010 and 2011. 2. Factor of operating performance efficiency in common frontiers of SFA, Selling, Ge- neral & Administrative Expense and amount of ship are positive effect to effic- iency value. Company age is insignificant effect to efficiency value. Efficiency performa- nce of oil tanker and dry bluk are worse than container. Efficiency values from 2009 to 2011 are lower than level of 2008, that means the financial tsunami occur in end of 2008 has affect to 2009, 2010 and 2011. Factor of market efficiency, ratio of earnings before interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization/Revenue and company age are positive effect to efficiency value. Efficiency performance of oil tanker and dry bluk are better than container. Efficiency values in 2009 and 2011 are lower than level of 2008, efficiency value in 2010 is unobvious higher than level of 2008, that means the financial tsunami occur in end of 2008 has an effect in 2009 and 2011. To sum up, (1) to (4) is organized as follows: 1. The 11 shipping companies in Taiwan, total average value of operating performance efficiency and market efficiency are lower than 0.7. Operating performance efficien- cy values decreasedyear by year. Market efficiency value rank are decreasingly from the rank of 5, 6 to rank 10. It shows that theshipping companies in Taiwan have imp- roved the space on operating performance efficiency and market efficiency. 2. The financial tsunami occur in the end of 2008, which changed the way the compa- nies used to use. Tobit Regression Model results show that the market efficiency was influenced by the finical crisis, while the operation performance efficiency was not influenced by the finical crisis. 3. This research use two measurement of DEA and SFA to estimate efficiency. The emp- irical results of SFA, sigma-squared (σ2) and gamma(γ) are significant, it means the inefficiency(Ui) is exist and technical efficiency values are clear. Therefore, using SFA to measure efficiency is better than DEA in this study in the whole.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0010035006
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/36182
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