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题名: 跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴協定對臺灣經濟影響評估與樞紐及輻條理論之驗證
Impact Assessment of Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership on Economy of Taiwan – with Discussion of Hub-and-Spoke Theory
作者: Ciou-Fong Wu
吳秋鳳
贡献者: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
关键词: 跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴協定;全球貿易分析模型;樞紐及輻條
Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership (TPP);Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP);Hub-and-Spoke
日期: 2012
上传时间: 2013-10-07T03:04:21Z
摘要: 近年來因世界貿易組織(WTO)杜哈回合失敗後,世界各國紛紛尋求區域自由貿易協定(FTA)之洽簽機會。臺灣在經濟整合上卻無法有突破性的進展,直到與中國完成簽署「海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議」(ECFA)。但是為了減少臺灣因缺少其他大型自由貿易市場可能所造成的不利影響,現正積極爭取加入於2000年初期興起的「跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴協定」(TPP)。因此本研究以全球貿易分析(GTAP)模型探討在ECFA第一階段早收清單以及市場未來可能全面開放的情況下,臺灣加入TPP對國內與全球經濟之影響評估。 Wonnacott(1975)發展之樞紐及輻條(Hub-and-Spoke)理論說明簽署FTA先後對貿易利得之影響,本研究以臺灣為樞紐國(hub)的地位分別與中國以及TPP洽簽FTA後,國內所獲得的貿易利得高低藉以驗證Wonnacott之理論。研究結果發現,臺灣加入TPP後國內總體經濟皆呈現正面效益,且當臺灣成為樞紐國時將可獲得較高的貿易利得。因此模擬結果不僅支持臺灣可積極發展對外貿易,亦證實了Wonnacott之樞紐及輻條理論。
In recent years, the failure of Doha Round facilitated countries worldwide to seek for opportunities for signing Free Trade Agreements. The disadvantage of Economic integration in Taiwan causes the bottleneck problem of development, until Taiwan has signed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China. But Taiwan is actively seeking for the opportunity to participate in TPP to avoid possible negative effects arise from the trend in regional economic development. In this study, GTAP model is used to evaluate the possible impacts and effects to domestic and global macroeconomic by participating in TPP after ECFA opening up the market. The results found that Taiwan participating in TPP after the ECFA was established, the country's overall economic benefits will be positive. The“hub-and-spoke” theory which developed by Wonnacott (1975) indicated that signing the FTA may have positive gains from trade for participants. Taiwan will receive the higher gains from trade being a hub position. Simulation results not only support the positive development of foreign trade, also confirmed the Wonnacott’s hub-and-spoke theory.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0019935009
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/36174
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