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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/35510

Title: 金融海嘯前後散裝新造船價格影響因素之分析
An Analysis of Influential Factors for the Price of Newbuilding Bulk Vessel before and after the Financial Crisis
Authors: Yu-Chen Liu
劉雨珍
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Shipping and Transportation Management
國立臺灣海洋大學:航運管理學系
Keywords: 散裝航運;新造船;金融海嘯;逐步迴歸分析;多元迴歸分析
Bulk shipping;Newbuilding vessel;Financial crisis;Stepwise regression analysis;Multiple regression analysis
Date: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-10-07T02:55:52Z
Abstract:   航運產業為資本密集產業,且易受全球經濟景氣之影響,因此航運經營與管理具有挑戰性。近年散裝航運市場與運費變化大,尤其是新造船價格波動劇烈,導致新造船購船決策更加困難。有關散裝船價格之研究,國內外相關文獻主要針對二手船價格進行分析,甚少探討散裝新造船價格之影響因素。因此本文利用英國倫敦克拉克森Clarkson Research過去八年(2005年1月至2012年12月)相關變數之月資料,採用ADF單根檢定、逐步迴歸與多元迴歸分析,分析影響新造船價格之因素,並進一步探討2008年金融海嘯對於新造船價格影響因素之衝擊。本文針對海岬型船(Capesize vessel)、巴拿馬極限型船(Panamax vessel)、超輕便極限型(Supramax vessel)與輕便型船(Handysize vessel)進行分析,其分析結果如下: 1. 2005-2012年散裝新造船價格影響因素研究中,研究顯示影響海岬型新造船價格最顯著之變數為波羅地海海岬型船運價指數與新造船載重噸。影響巴拿馬極限型新造船價格最顯著之變數為一年期論時傭船平均租金與倫敦銀行同業拆放款利率成長率。超輕便極限型新造船價格最顯著之影響變數為平均二手船價格、新造船載重噸與倫敦銀行同業拆放款利率成長率。而散裝輕便型新造船價格最顯著之影響變數則為新造船載重噸與全球鋼鐵價格指數。 2. 2008年底金融海嘯前後散裝新造船價格影響因素之研究顯示,海岬型新造船中,金融海嘯前為五年內平均二手船價格與船舶拆解載重噸對新造船價格影響最為顯著;金融海嘯後則為平均二手船價格、新造船載重噸與全球粗鐵生產量最為顯著。於散裝巴拿馬極限型新造船中,金融海嘯前為船舶拆解載重噸與全球粗鐵生產量對新造船價格影響最為顯著;金融海嘯後則為全球鋼鐵價格指數最為顯著。於散裝超輕便極限型新造船中,金融海嘯前為一年期論時傭船平均租金、倫敦銀行同業拆放款利率成長率與船舶拆解載重噸最為顯著;金融海嘯後為平均二手船價格最為顯著。於散裝輕便型新造船中,金融海嘯前為全球鋼鐵價格指數最為顯著;金融海嘯後為布蘭特原油價格與全球鋼鐵價格指數最為顯著。   本文研究結果可以提供散裝航運業者作為新造船購船決策之參考。
  The shipping industry is capital-intensive and easily affected by global economic. Therefore, the operations and management in bulk shipping business is full of challenges. The difficulty in making purchasing decision is accelerated since market development and freight rate in bulk shipping have drastic fluctuations in recent years. As regards the prices of bulk vessel, the domestic and foreign pertinent researches mostly analyzed the secondhand vessel price, few investigated the influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price. Hence, this study aim to investigate the influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price, and explorethe impact of the financial crisis in 2008 with ADF unit root test, stepwise regression analysis and multiple regression analysis. This study adopts related variables of recent years(January 2005 to December 2012) from Clarkson Research, and analyzes the influencing factors ofnewbuilding vessel priceof Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysizeseparately. The results demonstrate as follows: 1. The influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price in 2005 to 2012 indicate thatBalticCapesize Index and the newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages are significant variables in Capesize sectors.The one-year period time charter hire and the growth rate ofLondon interbank offered rateare significant variables inPanamax sectors. The average price of secondhand vessel, newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages and growth rate ofLondon interbank offered rateare significant variables inSupramax sectors. The newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages and the global steel price indexare significant variables inHandysize sectors. 2. The influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price during the financial crisis period in 2008 indicate following characteristics in bulk shipping market. The average price of secondhand vessel under five years old and the demolition of vessel deadweight tonnages are significant variables before the financial crisis. Then, the average price of secondhand vessel, newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages and global crude steel production are significant variables after the financial crisis in Capesize sector. The demolition of vessel deadweight tonnages and the global crude steel production are significant variables before the financial crisis. Then, the global steel price index is the significant variable after the financial crisis in Panamax sector. The one-year period time charter hire, demolition of vessel deadweight tonnages and growth rate of London interbank offered rate are significant variables before the financial crisis. Then, the average price of secondhand vessel is significant variable after the financial crisis in Supramax sector. The global steel price index is significant variable before the financial crisis. Then, the price of Brent crude and the global steel price index are significant variables after the financial crisis in Handysize sector.   The findings in this research can be served as a good reference on decision making in vessel purchasing for bulk shipping corporations.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0010073009
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/35510
Appears in Collections:[航運管理學系] 博碩士論文

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