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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/35322

Title: 應用Splunk資訊引擎從事海洋危險波浪分析
A Study on the Dangerous Ocean Waves by using Splunk Engine
Authors: San-Tai Huang
黃三泰
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Marine Environmental Informatics
國立臺灣海洋大學:海洋環境資訊學系
Keywords: 危險波浪;風浪關係;Splunk引擎;船難;危害風險
Dangerous waves;Wind wave correlation;Splunk engine;Shipwreck;Hazardous probability
Date: 2012
Issue Date: 2013-10-07T02:53:45Z
Abstract: 本文蒐集過去十年台灣周遭海域與海象有關之船難事件,合計有64事件,總落海與傷亡人數合計497人,平均每年發生6.4件船難,每年傷亡近50人,其中以小噸位之舢舨、膠筏、竹筏發生之船難事件最多,以東北角海域發生船難事件的機率較高,冬季發生機率最大,佔全部事件之43%。本文應用Splunk引擎工具,分析得知非颱風期間發生漁船船難事件時,鄰近海域示性波高有75%以上超過1.0公尺,此值未來可作為危險海況標準。另外,本文研究發現,船難案例中,船隻噸位與海象間的關係程度不高,代表除海象外,其它因素(如操船穩定性與技術等)不能忽略之。 不同噸位大小的船隻其耐海性不同,本文參考港務單位與海巡單位對安全航行之海況限制,以及台灣海域實測風級浪級關係,分析出各海域各種噸位漁船的危害波高,其中,10噸以下船隻在台灣西部海域的平均危害波高僅為0.91公尺,航行時須特別注意安全,而從歷史船難事件分析所得之平均危害波高為1.46公尺。根據前述危害波高標準,本研究分析各海域航行危害機率,發現小漁船在非颱風期間航行於台灣南部與西部海域之危險機率最高達38%,而在台灣北部與東部海域的危險機率則約12%。而在颱風期間,航行在台灣南部海域的小漁船可能發生船難的機率比平日增加二倍,危險機率高達79%,必須特別小心。本文研究分析結果有助於未來進行各海域各類船隻航行風險之評估。
This study collects shipwreck cases in the past 10 years. There were totally 64 accidents and caused 497 people dead or missing. There were average 6.4 ship accidents and 50 people dead in a year. Most accidents (43%) occurred on small boat in the Northeastern Taiwan Waters in winter season. This study applied Splunk Engine for wave data analysis. It was found that more than 75% the significant wave height at the sea area of ship accidents occurrence is larger than 1.0m. In addition, it was found there is no correlation between the ship size and the sea states when accidents occur. It means there are other factors causing the shipwreck except the sea states. This study referred to the navigation standard of harbor bureaus the Beaufort wind-wave correlation of Taiwanese Waters, in order to find the hazardous wave height for ship navigation. It was found that the hazardous wave height is only 0.91m for the 10-tons small boat in western Taiwan Waters although it is 1.46m from ship accidents statistics. For the other size boats and various seas around Taiwan are also defined. The hazardous probability of navigation accident is therefore derived according to the long-term statistics of field data. It is found the hazardous probability for small boat is 38% for non-typhoon period but it increases to 79% for typhoon period. The hazard probability of possible ship accident can be used as an indicator for fisherman or insurance company.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G004994E002
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/35322
Appears in Collections:[海洋環境資訊系] 博碩士論文

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