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Title: 散裝貨輪新造船舶價格之影響因素探討
Influencing Factors Investigation on The Prices of Newbuilding Bulk Carriers
Authors: Cheng-Chiang Huang
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Systems Engineering and Naval Architecture
Keywords: 航運市場;散裝貨輪新造船價;向量自我回歸模型;共整合檢定;Granger;金融海嘯
Shipping market;Price of newbuilding bulk carrier;VAR model;Cointegration test;Granger causality test;Financial tsunami
Date: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-10-07T02:46:59Z
Abstract: 船舶工業是一個高資本高風險的工業,也是一個受航運市場影響頗深的產業,尤其在航運市場蕭條的時候,造船廠時常得要面對低價搶單或是無船可造的風險。而航運業中扮有運輸原物料重要角色的散裝貨輪新造船價是本研究主要的探討對象,將散裝貨輪分為海岬型(Cape Size) 、巴拿馬極限型(Panamax)、輕便極限型(Supramax)和輕便型(Handy Size)四大類型,針對散裝貨輪的新船造價變動因素進行分析及比較。 以往造船工程探討的領域中,大多為流體力學、結構技術或自動電控等技術性的精進;然而研究新船造價的文獻卻少之又少,本研究透過單根檢定、向量自回歸模型和Granger因果關係檢定等步驟進行。實證結果透過共整合檢定過之VAR模型發現金融海嘯前後,始終存有領先關係的是四型船的波羅的海指數,其他原物料變數在金融海嘯後的領先關係幾乎都消失;統整新造船價和各變數間的因果關係檢定結果,金融海嘯前後波羅的海指數僅單向引起新造船價改變,原油價格在金融海嘯前未和任一船型新造船價有因果關係,在金融海嘯後和巴拿馬極限型、超級極限型新造船價有雙向因果關係。
Shipbuilding industry is a high capital industry with high risk that is also deeply influenced by shipping market. Especially when the shipping market in depression, shipyards often have to compete each other from cheaper price or no ship to be made. Bulk carriers are divided into Capesize, Panamax, Supramax & Handy Size, four major types. They play an important role of shipping market of raw materials. In the previous shipbuilding engineering research, most are related about fluid dynamics, structure design and automatic electronically controlled technical sophistication. However, the literature of the new- building price is less to find. This study adopts the unit root test, vector autoregressive model and Granger causality test steps for variable analysis. The empirical results identify the lead-lag relationship changes between the four major types of the price of newbuilding bulk carrier and variables before and after the financial tsunami. The testing results show that the BDI has leading property in the four types of new-building ship prices through the VAR model with cointegration test before and after the financial tsunami. In contrast, other variables of the raw materials have no such tendency. The Granger causality test of the new-building price and other various variables shows that the BDI only influences the new ship-building prices. As for the oil price, it has no cause-effect relationship with the new ship-building prices of the four types of bulk carriers before the financial tsunami; while after the financial tsunami, the oil price has cause-effect with the new-building prices of the Panamax and Supramax each other.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M98510018
Appears in Collections:[系統工程暨造船學系] 博碩士論文

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