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题名: 台灣東部海域鬼頭刀之性別-體型結構族群模式建構與資源評估
Sex-Specific Size-Structured Population Modelling and Stock Assessment for Dolphinfish in the Waters around Eastern Taiwan
作者: 王勝平
贡献者: NTOU:Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science
國立臺灣海洋大學:環境生物與漁業科學學系
日期: 2012-08
上传时间: 2013-10-07T02:35:07Z
出版者: 行政院國家科學委員會
摘要: 摘要:鬼頭刀(Coryphaena hippurus)為台灣沿近海漁業中相當重要之經濟性魚種之一,而台灣東 部海域之鬼頭刀產量即佔全國鬼頭刀產量之70%左右。自1980 年代末期鬼頭刀產量開始大幅 增加,但近年產量則急劇減少,因此有必要針對台灣東部鬼頭刀資源進行評估。鬼頭刀已知 為一雌雄異形之魚種,此外鬼頭刀也具有生活史短之特性,其最大年齡估計僅約為四歲,一 般用以進行資源評估之生產量及年結構模式並不適合應用於該資源之評估分析。因此,本研 究之目的在於配合台灣東部海域鬼頭刀漁獲資料及生物參數建構漁具別之性別-體型結構族 群動態模式,用以進行該台灣東部海域鬼頭刀之資源評估,並以蒙地卡羅模擬方法評估資料 之觀測誤差與模式建構之假設誤差對於模式估計結果之影響。此外,本研究也將進行模式參 數之貝氏機率分布估計以考量參數估計之不確定性,並進一步以模擬方法進行資源動態之投 射預測,以進行在各種不同漁業利用之管理策略下資源變動之風險分析。
Abstract: Dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) is an important commercial species for Taiwanese offshore and costal fisheries. The catch of dolphinfish made in the waters around eastern Taiwan was about 70% of total dolphinfish catch in Taiwan. The catch of dolphinfish substantially increased since the late 1980s and sharply decreased in recent years. Thus it is necessary to evaluate the stock status of dolphinfish in the waters around eastern Taiwan. Dolphinfish is known to be sex dimorphic and its lifespan is relatively short. The maximum age of dolphinfish was estimated to be about 4 years. The models, which were commonly used for stock assessments, are not applicable to the dolphinfish. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a gear and sex-specific size-structured population model for dolphinfish and to fit the model to the fishery data and biological parameters, which are available for dolphinfish in the waters around eastern Taiwan. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation approach will be used to evaluate the impact of the error in data and model assumptions on the model estimations. In addition, this study will calculate the Bayesian probability distributions for model parameters for considering the uncertainty in model estimations. Furthermore, the risk analysis related to the management strategies will be performed using the population dynamics projections, which will be conducted based on the Bayesian probability distributions of the model parameters.
關聯: NSC99-2313-B019-007-MY3
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/34509
显示于类别:[環境生物與漁業科學學系] 研究計畫

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