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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/34381

Title: 龜山島海洋保護區規劃之研究-應用貝氏統計模式進行龜山島海域漁獲組成與生態系統長期變動之研究(II)
Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Analyzing the Variation of Catch Composition and Ecosystem off Gueishan Island Waters
Authors: 劉光明;王世斌;陸曉筠;莊慶達
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Marine Affairs and Resource Managemen
Keywords: 貝氏統計模式;龜山島;生態系;漁業管理;風險評估
Bayesian statistical model;Gueishan Island;Ecosystem;Fisheries management;Risk analysis
Date: 2012-08
Issue Date: 2013-10-07T02:27:25Z
Publisher: 行政院國家科學委員會
Abstract: 摘要:本研究將蒐集龜山島附近海域的歷史性漁獲資料,魚種組成及漁業別努力量等資料進行分析。並蒐集各魚種之生物學資料,如死亡率,成長率,攝食率與胃內容物等資料,以及估算各魚種之生物量。並以此為基礎利用Ecopath with Ecosim軟體來建構龜山島 附近海域海洋生態系統,解析此海洋生態系內各物種間的交互作用。且為了了解漁業對本海洋生態系可能造成的影響,將整合龜山島海洋生態系漁業資源之生物學資料與漁業資料,模擬在龜山島附近海域劃設不同大小與位置之海洋保護區,並配合各子計畫之研究結果,期能將本海域內海洋保護區的劃設最佳化。並利用Ecosim 模擬在不同漁獲壓力與資源管理政策下各物種生物量變動之情形。最後估算在龜山島附近海域劃設海洋保護區之效益,以期確保本海洋生態系之健全(ecosystem health)及其漁業資源的永續利用。再配合層級貝氏方法(Hierarchical Bayesian approach)討論參數估計之不確定性與資料之可信度,最後提出針對本海洋生態系管理之建議。本研究之結果可做為未來進行本海洋生態系資源管理與海洋保護區劃設之科學根據。
This study will collect the historical fisheries data, species composition, efforts of different fisheries and environments, such as sea surface temperature, salinity and nutrients. We hope to find out the relationship between variations of yields and environmental factors. The biological information, such as mortality, growth rates, consumption rates and diet compositions will be collected from literatures and field study. In addition, the species specific biomass will be estimated by several methods. Those parameters will be the inputs of Ecopath with ecosim to constitute the marine ecosystem and realize the interaction between species off Guishan islands. Furthermore, the ecosim will be used to simulate effects of fishing pressure and resource managements strategy on the variations of each specie. Finally, the ecospace will be used to evaluate the benefits of marine protected area of Guishan islands. For the reason that ensure the ecosystem health and sustainable uses of fisheries resources. This study will collect and analysis relationship between the temporal and spatial variations of historical fisheries data, fishing efforts and environment factors. Moreover, to optimize the marine protected area of Guishan islands. We will combine the Ecopath with Hierarchical Bayesian approach to discuss the uncertainties of parameters. In the final, we will offer the suggestions of “Ecosystem- approaches to management” and the establishment of marine protect area in the Northwest Pacific marine ecosystem.
Relation: NSC101-2621-M019-001
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/34381
Appears in Collections:[海洋事務與資源管理研究所] 研究計畫

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