abstract:This study applies a refined recursive input–output model to predict the development of the biohydrogen sector in the US, China, Japan and India, and its impact on the economic growth of these countries. Simulation results reveal that China will have the largest biohydrogen market, followed by the US, Japan and India in that order. India will see the most efficient investment in the biohydrogen sectors, whereas Japan will have the greatest potential to substitute fossil fuels for biohydrogen. Results can be regarded as providing a general guideline for decision-makers in the development of biohydrogen in their own countries. Simulation results suggest that investment in biohydrogen technologies should have priority over investment in hydrogen infrastructure to maximize the biohydrogen output of all four countries.