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Application of Game Theory to Strategic Analysis of Vessels Collision Avoidance and Fair Apportionment of Salvage Reward
|Contributors: ||NTOU:Department of Merchant Marine|
|Issue Date: ||2012-04-13T01:47:40Z
|Abstract: ||摘要:船舶碰撞事故將嚴重污染海洋環境。採用避碰行為以避免碰撞以及在事故發 生時透過救助報酬分攤以有效果地減少污染等是極為重要的工作。船舶避碰行為 的主要依據係為1972 年國際海上避碰規則，而救助報酬分攤則是1989 年國際海 難（撈）救助公約，然而前者卻無清晰的行動策略，又後者則有不公平的報酬分 攤，這些問題引發了本計畫欲建構船舶避碰策略分析與海難救助報酬公平分攤等 方法論的強烈動機。因此，本計畫擬以專門解決現實情況中兩個或兩個以上理性 思考者的互動過程之問題的賽局理論作為貫穿整個計畫之最適當的方法論；即使 用不合作賽局中完全訊息動態賽局理論為基本，配合懲罰值概念以建構船舶避碰 策略分析之推論法則，其包括兩船避碰以及多船避碰等情況，另採用合作賽局中 夏普立值定理為基本，配合貢獻值調整以建構救助報酬公平分攤之計算公式；這 些自創的方法論係用以處理船舶避碰策略分析與救助報酬公平分攤等難題，而且 它們均透過依實例所設計的各種情境分析驗證之。此外，由於前述兩公約難以內 化，即必須分別考量其法條之排序以及貢獻準則之歸納量化等，擬以三年期陸續 地建構方法論。最後，本計畫之研究成果，對海事產業界將有實質的助益，進而 提昇目前的海事教育與訓練等，具體地達到海洋環境保護之目標。|
Abstract:The accidents, from vessels’ collisions, always lead to serious pollutions that threaten the marine environment. Therefore, to prevent collisions by adopting collision avoidance and effectively decrease pollutions by apportioning salvage reward among occurrences of accidents, are important task. It is known that the bases of collision avoidance and that of salvage reward stand on the 1972 COLREG and 1989 Salvage, respectively. However, both of them have their shortcomings, such as no clear strategy for the former and unfair apportionment for the later. There inspire a severe motivation for this project. Since these problems involving interactions of two or more rational thinking people in the real-life situations; the game theory is the adaptive approach to resolve it. Based on dynamic game with complete information of non-cooperative game, in conjunction with penalty concept to vessels collision avoidance, including strategic analysis of two-vessel or multi-vessel situations, and Shapley value theorem (SVT) of cooperative game, in conjunction with contribution modified to fair apportionment of salvage rewards, these self-creative methodologies are developed to tackle the hard problems, and then will be validated with several scenarios analyses designed according to collision cases. Besides, due to difficult internalization of the aforementioned conventions, a three-year project will be proposed to construct these methodologies. Finally, it is believed that all developed methodologies will be practically helpful for the maritime industries and further improving the current maritime education and training, to protect marine environment.
|Appears in Collections:||[商船學系] 研究計畫|
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