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题名: 乾旱時期用水分配模式之研究-子計畫:結合降雨預報結果建立乾旱時期用水分配模式
Building of Water Allocation Model Integrating with Rainfall Forecasting during Drought(Ii)
作者: 黃文政
贡献者: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
关键词: 乾旱;用水分配;水庫;風險;預警;決策支援系統
日期: 2011-08
上传时间: 2012-04-13T01:20:00Z
出版者: 行政院國家科學委員會
摘要: 摘要:本子計畫 2 目的在結合降雨預報結果建立乾旱時期用水分配模式,並以濁水溪流域 為研究對象。研究中擬建立一套水庫乾旱風險預警及決策支援系統,希望在面對乾旱問 題時,配合子計畫1 的雨量/流量預報,及子計畫3 的地下水推估,能藉由早期預警並 採取抗旱措施,降低乾旱缺水影響及其損失。首先,針對區域內水資源特性,進行資料 蒐整及檢討水資源之供水分配;其次,針對濁水溪流域供水系統,綜合乾旱的監測、影 響、預警、應變至決策的分析,建立水庫乾旱預警決策分析模式,進一步以風險概念探 討風險決策條件之特性及準確性,可增輔決策者抗旱決策之依據,提供各權責單位做休 耕、限水決策之用;最後,透過決策支援系統之建置,使用者可即時查詢水庫水位、蓄 水量、流量等水情歷史紀錄,與即時掌握乾旱預警決策分析相關研究成果。透過救旱因 應之分析功能,決策者可同時針對不同減水策略,進行線上即時分析及研擬,迅速提供 相關單位緊急應變之方案。
abstract:The objective of this sub-project 2 is to build a water allocation model during the period of drought, together with rainfall/runoff forecasting (sub-project 1) and groundwater utilization (sub-project 3). In this study, we are going to present a risk-based decision model integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation of decision support system (DSS) in the Choshui river basin. The proposed risk-based early warning system for drought management on the real-time reservoir operation consists of three essential elements, namely, (a) drought watch, (b) water consumption measure, and (c) policy making. For demonstration, the drought warning procedures will be applied to historical droughts from dry condition to wet situation. The implementation of such a system will prove that the decision support-like system can help the decision makers understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. Finally, a user-friendly DSS for drought early warning system on the region of water resource supply will be introduced with an eye to practical use. The system can assist reservoir managers to work out applicable rule for real-time reservoir operation and close the gap between theory and practice.
關聯: NSC99-2625-M019-001-MY2
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/30691
显示于类别:[河海工程學系] 研究計畫

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