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题名: 易肇事地點改善績效之研究
A Study on the Performance Improvement of Hazardous Locations
作者: Hsiu-Shan Tung
董秀珊
贡献者: NTOU:Department of Transportation Science
國立臺灣海洋大學:運輸科學系
关键词: 易肇事地點;資料包絡分析法;Range資料包絡分析法;麥氏生產力指數法;序列麥氏生產力指數法;改善效果
Hazardous Locations;Data Envelopment Analysis;Range Data Envelopment Analysis;Malmquist Productivity Index;Sequential Malmquist Productivity Index;Improvement Effect
日期: 2011
上传时间: 2011-11-25T07:28:31Z
摘要: 交通部自民國69年起,至今(民100)已辦理28期臺灣地區易肇事路段改善計畫,建立了國內執行易肇事地點改善的基本作業程序與方法。交通部每年皆投入相當多的人力、物力及金錢,持續進行全國易肇事地點的改善,至於改善計畫的執行成效如何,實有探究之必要。因此本研究的目的即在於分析易肇事地點改善之效果,並探討影響改善效果之因素。雖然在過去的國內外文獻中,資料包絡分析法(DEA)多被應用於效率分析,但是當產出定義為實際產出、投入定義為規劃產出時,亦可運用DEA進行效果分析,本研究即利用DEA探討易肇事地點改善之效果。 本研究以第22期台灣地區易肇事路段改善計畫的易肇事地點為研究對象,透過資料整併後整理出115個受評估單位。本研究將投入項設定為事故次數以及嚴重度指標的期望改善程度,改善計畫執行完成後五年各受評估地點的交通事故次數以及嚴重度指標的實際改善程度作為產出項,利用Range資料包絡分析法(Range DEA)推估各改善路段之效果值,並藉由效果值了解各受評單位之相對有效果/無效果的情況及其差異。本研究另利用序列麥式生產力指數(Sequential MPI)探討技術變動與效果變動,經分析結果發現,執行後第四年各受評單位的改善效果下滑變化率最大,投入改善措施後第四年各受評單位的技術便未進步。本研究進一步利用多元迴歸分析方法探討改善效果值的影響因素,根據分析結果發現,當易肇事地點發生交通事故之嚴重度高、改善成本超過100萬元、執行單位為地方交通單位以及警察局,該受評估地點的改善效果較差;當改善手段為交通工程、受評估地點設有中央分向島、劃分快車道線以及當路口的號誌運作正常者,其改善效果較佳。
The Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) have been conducting a serial projects to improve hazardous roadway locations since 1980. A standard operating procedure has been developed and applied to thousands of hazardous locations over the past decades. Since a large amount of money has been spent on these projects, it is essential to investigate the effectiveness of these investment. This study evaluated the effectiveness of those hazardous locations that investigated in the 22nd project of hazardous roadway improvement. A total of 115 hazardous locations were analyzed by the applications of DEA and Malmquist Productivity Index. In this study, the input variables are the expected deviations of accident frequencies and serious index and the output variables are the actual deviations of accident frequencies and serious index. This study applied the Sequential Malmquist Productivity Index to the inspection of technical changes and technical effectiveness changes among these 115 hazardous locations. This study found the greatest decrease in effectiveness occurred in the fourth year after the project implemented. The study results demonstrated that the technical changes were no longer advanced in the fourth year after implementation as well. The analyzed results of this study indicated that the locations with high serious indexes, with investment costs over 1 million NT dollars, enforced by local transportation agencies and police contributed to less improvement effects. The locations mitigated with traffic engineering treatments, with raised medians, through lanes, and signals were associated with greater improvement effects.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M98680006
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/30123
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