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Title: 台灣地區21世紀末之降雨旱澇分析-以CGCM3(T47)及CNRM-CM3氣候模式為例
Taiwan's Rainfall Frequency Analysis in the End of 21st Century, Based on the GCMs of CGCM3(T47) and CNRM-CM3
Authors: Ruo-Ying Wu
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
Keywords: ;;克利金法
Date: 2011
Issue Date: 2011-11-23T03:18:32Z
Abstract: 本研究探討二十一世紀末台灣地區之降雨旱澇分析。利用GCM氣候模式之情境資料CGCM3(T47)(Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canada)、CNRM-CM3(Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques France),經由資料校正後,採用對數皮爾遜第三型分佈及克利金法,針對實測值(1979-1998年)、未來值之CGCM3(T47)、CNRM-CM3模式(2080-2099年)及參考張惠雯(2010)【13】及江昀(2011)【4】之結果平均五個模式為綜合值(ensemble)的降雨模擬,分析台灣地區的旱(年最大連續不降雨日數)及澇(年最大一日、二日、三日雨量),以了解降雨旱澇之情況。 結果顯示,CNRM-CM3、CGCM3(T47)模式及綜合值年最大一日雨量,南部地區降雨量皆增加。CNRM-CM3、CGCM3(T47)模式及綜合值平均2年南部地區即發生超大豪雨(大於350mm);中、東部地區平均5年發生超大豪雨;北部地區平均100年時發生超大豪雨。連續不降雨日數平均2年時,南部沿岸地區即發生小旱(大於50日),中部地區平均10年時發生小旱,北部沿岸地區平均50年發生小旱,東部沿岸地區則平均100年發生小旱。 整體來說,CNRM-CM3模式旱澇明顯,年最大連續不降雨日數及年最大一日至三日情況皆較CGCM3(T47)模式及綜合值高;CGCM3(T47)及綜合值模擬情況較為相近且都高於歷史實測值。整體而言,未來21世紀末台灣地區其連續不降雨日數及年最大一日、二日及三日雨量皆有增加之趨勢。
The purpose of this research is to assess the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic frequency of extreme events (drought and flood) in Taiwan. Provided by IPCC’S GCM A1B scenarios of climate model data in CGCM3(T47)and CNRM-CM3, The adjusted data by using the quadrant conversion method over Taiwan are analyzed based on the Log-Pearson type III distribution and kriging method to realize the maximum consecutive dry days and maximum 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day rainfall within 2080-2099, as compared with those within 1979-1998. For maximum 1-day to 3-day rainfall and cumulative dry days, the outcomes of CNRM-CM3(2080-2099) is higher than other models, and the outcome of CGCM3(2080-2099) is similar to the ensemble of future climate by CGCM3(T47)、CNRM-CM3、FGOALS-g1.0、GFDL-CM2.0 and CGCM2.3.2. Overall, all of GCMs’ outcomes are higher than the past value(1979-1998). This result appears the quantity and intensity of rainfall and dry might increase in the future.
Appears in Collections:[Department of Harbor and River Engineering] Dissertations and Theses

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