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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/29825

Title: 翡翠水庫即時防洪操作模式之研究
Real-time Flood Operation for Feitsui Reservoir
Authors: 李俊礱
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 即時防洪操作;濕澇指標;洪水情勢指標;洪水預警指數
Feitsui reservoir;real-time flood operation;flood early warning;Flood Alert Index
Date: 2011
Issue Date: 2011-11-23T03:18:32Z
Abstract: 本研究以北部地區翡翠水庫為研究對象,主要目的為建立水庫即時防洪操作模式,以期能於即時防洪操作過程中提供水庫管理單位洪水預警相關資訊。 於本研究中以「濕澇指標分析」與「洪水情勢指標分析」分別評估水庫及下游區域之現況與未來6小時之洪水程度,並以「防洪預警指數」將兩者結合,綜合評估水庫現況與未來之洪水狀況,再利用燈號分類方式表現出目前水庫所遭受之危險等級。考慮到防洪操作風險,本模式亦提供不同重現期洪水對水庫可能造成之影響分析,讓操作者可以更全面了解洪水可能造成之災情,以期能降低防洪操作風險。 於案例研究中,採7場颱風事件進行即時防洪演算,結果顯示本模式之決策建議燈號與放水量可應集水區水文情勢發展而有所改變。於模式準確率分析中,重現期10年以下降雨事件之預警燈號準確率可達90%以上,重現期200年之準確率亦有將近80%,且各重現期之低估率僅有1%左右。
The goal of this thesis is to construct the real-time flood operation model for the Feitsui reservoir which locates on the Hsintien river at north Taiwan. With the model, operator could get the flood early warning information and mitigate the disaster. In this thesis, real-time flood operation model evaluates the flood impact by: (a) “flood watch” to monitor the current flood situation, (b) “future flood influence” to estimate the possible flood of down-stream area. And finally makes use of “Flood Alert Index” (FAI) to evaluate the danger of floods comprehensively. This model is considering the influence of different return period floods on catchment, operator could determine what return period might be used according to cumulative rainfall by real-time estimated. In case study of real floods during typhoon period, FAI can reflect the flood situation of catchment well and provide the flood early warning information, the flood release that model suggests could also be a reference for operator.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M98520064
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/29825
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 博碩士論文

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