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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/29657

Title: 從不合理房價觀點分析台北地區民眾對住宅需求之影響因子
Analysis of the Impact factors on Housing Demand in Taipei Area from the Viewpoint of Unreasonable Housing Price
Authors: Jia-Yi Lin
林家逸
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: Probit模型;多項式Logit模型;房價合理性
Probit Model;Multinomial Logit Model;Housing Price;Reasonable
Date: 2011
Issue Date: 2011-11-23T02:44:55Z
Abstract:   根據營建署2010年問卷調查統計結果顯示,台灣有五成三的新購屋和打算購屋者,認為房價不合理,其中,在六個接受調查的都會區中,以新北市、台北市認為房價非常不合理和不合理的比例最高,約為61%。此外根據近三年民間機構以及房仲業者自行針對房價合理性與否進行民調,認為房價不合理的民眾都佔有五成以上的比例。 本文透過樣本選擇模型與多項式logit模型針對大台北地區不同住宅需求民眾及其偏好進行研究。資料來源為內政部營建署針對國內有住宅需求的消費者進行的問卷調查原始資料。本研究所採用的時間為98年度下半之原始資料檔,考量研究主題,僅選取臺北市以及新北市之住宅需求消費者,共計總樣本數為2643筆。   實證結果發現,家庭特徵變數包含:決策者性別、教育以及收入等,皆會顯著影響民眾對於住宅價格合理性的認定,也顯著使消費者影響不買住宅的可能性。在住宅特徵變數的部分,區位以及住宅面積皆顯著與合理性觀點以及租買決策相關,區位方面,臺北市、新北市等地區對於消費者是否考慮租買住宅以及對於合理性觀點的認定有顯著性。 關鍵字: Probit模型、多項式Logit模型、房價合理性。
According to the report from Construction and Planning Agency Ministry of the Interior in 2010, it shows fifty-three percent of new buyer and planed buyer for house in Taiwan consider housing price in Taiwan is unreasonable. Among the top 6 cities of Taiwan, the survey also shows that Taipei City and New Taipei City have 61% of respondents consider the housing prices are unreasonable which is higher than other cities. In addition, according to similar survey conducts by private research center in recently 3 years, it also shows the unreasonable viewpoint of housing price always over 50% of respondents. This research uses the sample selection model and multinomial logit model to analyze consumers’ demand for four different types of housing in Taipei areas. The data come from the survey data conducts by Construction and Planning Agency Ministry of the Interior in second half of the year in 2009. For research purpose, we only select data in Taipei and New Taipei city. Total samples are 2643. The analysis result shows that the characteristics of respondents including gender, education and monthly income, the house characteristics including location, size, and location are significant factors which affect people’s viewpoint of price reasonability and demand for house. Keyword: Probit Model、Multinomial Logit Model、Housing Price、 Reasonable
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M98350014
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/29657
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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