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|Title: ||Economic analysis and market price forecast for milk fish culture in Taiwan|
|Contributors: ||NTOU:Department of Aquaculture|
|Keywords: ||Milk fish;Production economic;Time series;Seasonal ARIMA|
|Issue Date: ||2011-10-21T02:18:21Z
|Abstract: ||Abstract:Milk fish has always been an important aquaculture species in Taiwan, the culture area is only less than tilapia’s, and the quantity of year ranks 8th in Taiwan. Although the culture area has been decreasing recently, it’s unit productivity has been maintained the same. The location, production system and biological culture characteristics have a significant effect over it’s production that lead to price fluctuations. These changes affect the income of fishermen and the development of culture in the future.The aim of study is to analyze production costs、economic benefits and market price of milk fish: 1. The economic production analysis aims to understand the current operating cost structure and culture conditions. 2. Setting up the forecast model of market price by using seasonal ARIMA model to analyze time series, providing a useful tool with government and manager to create a suitable fishery policy and scheme. The total operating costs for 2005 and 2006 were 58.5 and 64.7 NTD/kg, respectively. Feed and fertilizer costs had the highest ratio in the operating cost structure, and labor was the second main costs. In tems of production benefits, they had a net revenue deficit. According to the price forecast, origin place price could decline to 2.1% and 4.5% in Oct. and Nov., and Dec. could have 8.4% raise. The consumer price could rise to 74.2、74.9 and 77.0 NTD/kg between Oct. to Dec., the average raise could be 2% .|
|Appears in Collections:||[水產養殖學系] 演講及研討會|
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