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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/26138

Title: 貨櫃吞吐量預測模式之比較研究
A Comparative Study of Forecasting Models on the Prediction of Container Throughput Volumes
Authors: 彭文怡;朱經武
Wen-Yi Peng;Ching-Wu Chu
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Shipping and Transportation Management
國立臺灣海洋大學:航運管理學系
Keywords: 預測;單一變數;吞吐量
Forecasting;Univariate;Throughput
Date: 2007-12
Issue Date: 2011-10-20T08:33:55Z
Publisher: 航運季刊
Maritime Quarterly
Abstract: 摘要:本研究之目的為使用六種單一變數預測方法預測台灣國際港口之每月貨櫃吞吐量,六種預測方法包含有古典分解法、三角函數迴歸、季節性虛擬變數、灰預測、組合灰預測及SARIMA。研究對象為台灣地區三大國際港埠(基隆港、台中港與高雄港)之貨櫃吞吐量,研究中利用實證分析,以驗證何者可提供預測最佳之精確度,經由利用平均絕對誤差(MAE)、平均絕對誤差百分比(MAPE)及殘差均方根(RMSE)等評估指標比較後,發現基隆港以古典分解法,而台中港與高雄港以SARIMA 的預測能力最佳。本研究之結果可提供港埠當局未來進行港埠規劃時之參考。本研究之目的為使用六種單一變數預測方法預測台灣國際港口之每月貨櫃吞吐量,六種預測方法包含有古典分解法、三角函數迴歸、季節性虛擬變數、灰預測、組合灰預測及SARIMA。研究對象為台灣地區三大國際港埠(基隆港、台中港與高雄港)之貨櫃吞吐量,研究中利用實證分析,以驗證何者可提供預測最佳之精確度,經由利用平均絕對誤差(MAE)、平均絕對誤差百分比(MAPE)及殘差均方根(RMSE)等評估指標比較後,發現基隆港以古典分解法,而台中港與高雄港以SARIMA 的預測能力最佳。本研究之結果可提供港埠當局未來進行港埠規劃時之參考。
Abstract:The purpose of this study is to provide a more accurate prediction model on the container throughput for rendering a reference to authorities. Six different univariate methods, namely the Classical Decomposition Model, the Trigonometric Model, the Regression Model with Seasonal Dummy Variables, the Grey Forecast, the Hybrid Grey model, and the SARIMA, have been used. The contribution of this research is to compare
the forecasting results of the six univariate methods based on commonly used evaluation
criteria, MAE, MAPE and RMSE. We found that, the Classical Decomposition model is a reliable prediction method for forecasting Keelung port container throughput, and the SARIMA is the best method for Taichung and Kaohsung port. The outcome of this work can be helpful to predict the near future demands for the container throughput of the
international port.
Relation: 16(4), pp.81-102
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/26138
Appears in Collections:[航運管理學系] 期刊論文

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