|Abstract: ||摘要:影響航運市場與運價波動因素眾多，根據經濟學供需原理，主要受船噸供給與貨源需求之直接影響。香港於 1995年加入世界貿易組織 (WTO)，1997 年回歸中國，中國與臺灣亦相繼於 2001年底與 2002年初加入世界貿易組織。臺灣、中國、香港之經濟將更融入全球經濟體系，兩岸經貿互動將有共同基礎，對兩岸航運發展勢必產生影響。過去文獻大部分僅探討特定國家船噸結構，並未與其他國家或全球進行比較，且未見有系統加以量化分析成長趨勢。本文利用聯合國貿易暨發展委員會 (UNCTAD) 最近十年統計，深入分析兩岸三地 (臺灣、中國與香港) 之船噸結構，並採用灰色理論 (grey theory) 之灰預測 GM(1,1)預測模式，進一步從供給面著手，比較兩岸三地與全球船噸之成長趨勢，並藉指數平滑法作精確度比較，又以區間預測結果進行討論。研究分析發現，於船噸結構方面，除了香港之外，臺灣和中國與全球一致，呈現國輪減少外輪增加趨勢。以載重噸而言，兩岸三地均呈現逐年增加趨勢；於成長趨勢方面，未來三年臺灣與香港船噸小幅成長，但中國將會呈現巨幅成長。研究結果可提供航運公司研擬營運策略，以及政府主管機關制定航運政策之參考。|
According to the economic principles of supply and demand, there are many factors that can influence shipping markets and fluctuations in transportation prices. They mainly result directly from the vessel supply tonnage and the cargo source demand. Hong Kong joined WTO in 1995, and returned to China in 1997. China and Taiwan also joined WTO in 2001 and 2002 respectively. The economies of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong will be more integrated into the global economy system; hence, interactions of economies and business between China and Taiwan will share the same basis. As a result, there must be some effects upon the shipping industries in both China and Taiwan. Most of the earlier studies only discussed certain countries’ tonnage structures; they neither performed comparative analyses of the tonnage structures between different countries or rest of the world nor provided any growth trends on the systematic quantification analysis. In this study, we used the latest ten-year statistics of UNCTAD to thoroughly analyze tonnage structures of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong. We adopted Grey GM (1, 1) Model of Grey theory to forecast and smooth exponentials to have accurate comparisons. In respect to the supply side, we compared tonnage-structure growth trends of Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong with the global growth trend, and discussed the interval results. The Results showed that, in terms of the tonnage structure, except for Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are consistent with the global trend in the reduction of national flag vessels and the increase in foreign flag vessels. Furthermore, there is a rise in deadweight tonnage for Taiwan, China, and Hong Kong respectively. In the coming three years, the tonnage growth of Taiwan and Hong Kong will slightly increase; on the other hand, the tonnage growth of China will increase aggressively. The findings of this study will assist shipping companies in shipping management decision-making, and government agencies in formulating supportive shipping policies.