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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/25361

Title: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Tile Fish Fishery in Guei-Shan Island Waters, Taiwan
Authors: Kwang-Ming Liu
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Marine Affairs and Resource Managemen
Keywords: Time series analysis;Branchiostegus japonicus
Date: 1994
Issue Date: 2011-10-20T08:22:24Z
Publisher: Journal of the Fisheries Society of Taiwan
Abstract: abstract:The tile fish, Branchiostegus japonicus, is one of the highest price commercial species in Taiwan; however, its fisheries biology is unknown. The catch data of Guei-Shan Island waters, January 1977 to December 1992, were from the monthly catch record in Tahsi fish market. The effort data were estimated from the monthly weather report and registered fishing boat record. Time series analysis was applied to analyze the time structure and develop equation for month-ahead forecasting of tile fish fishery. A 1-month time lag was found for the catch series and a 4-month time lag was found for the CPUE series. The one month-ahead forecasting equation for a first order autoregressive model ARIMA (1,0,0) and a fourth order autoregressive model ARIMA (4,0,0) can be estimated from Ct=444.682 + 0.4137 Ct-1 and Ut=0.574 Ut-1 + 0.242 Ut-2 + 0.113 Ut-3 - 0.194 Ut-4, respectively. The easy-to use and no unrealistic assumption make the time series analysis an economic and effective tool for fishery management.
Relation: 21(4), pp.301-312
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/25361
Appears in Collections:[海洋事務與資源管理研究所] 期刊論文

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